Fourth Down Data
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HAW

Hawai'i

Rainbow WarriorsBalanced
Mountain West Conference3-9#126 (-19.62)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

6· FOverall
Offense
14· FRating
38· DPer play
49· CConsistency
36· DBig plays
Defense
7· FRating
6· FPer play
21· DConsistency
Situational
39· DRed-zone O
46· CRed-zone D
88· B3rd down O
9· F3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.026
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.193
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.044
Defensive EPA/play
+0.125
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.7%
Def Success Rate
49.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.168
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.233
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.75

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.87
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.65
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#126
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 51 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Hawai'i ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
44th
Opp-adjusted defense
2th
Offensive EPA/play
38th
Defensive EPA/play
6th
Offensive success rate
57th
Explosiveness
36th
Defensive havoc
30th
Points per drive
23th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia State2023OA +0.002 / -0.083similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, pass defense3882Vanderbilt2022OA +0.014 / -0.067similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3633Cincinnati2017OA -0.045 / -0.091similar: turnover rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3504Stanford2026OA -0.036 / -0.136similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3385Stanford2026OA -0.036 / -0.136similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, defensive success rate338

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ Massachusetts38-35W----
1vs Western Carolina41-18W-22.5W--
2@ UCLA23-56L+24.0L63.5O
4@ Wyoming21-28L+5.5L55U
5vs Colorado State21-51L+6.5L64.5O
6@ Nevada21-35L-3.5L63U
7vs San José State37-26W-17.0L63.5U
9vs San Diego State7-28L+7.5L53.5U
10@ UNLV23-31L+7.0L59U
11vs Fresno State21-31L+9.5L52.5U
12@ Utah State0-38L+10.5L56U
13vs BYU20-30L+3.0L47O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-10
9.1%
O/U Record
3-7
30.0%
Straight Up
2-9
18.2%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS0-5
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS0-8
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off46thRush Off62thRed Zone Off39th3rd Down Off89thPass Def38thRush Def5thRed Zone Def47th3rd Down Def9th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01850th+0.1078th
Red Zone-0.04739th+0.02047th
Third Down+0.23089th+0.2139th
No Garbage Time-0.03344th+0.1375th
First Half-0.06238th+0.1538th
Second Half+0.02970th+0.05920th
Early Downs-0.03949th+0.05618th
Passing Downs-0.03446th+0.02438th
Standard Downs-0.00962th+0.1455th
Goal to Go-0.00851th+0.07837th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.2%Rush 49.8%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
16.4%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
13.4
Yards/Game
402.7
Pts/Drive
1.75
3rd Down%
38.3%
3&Out%
25.2%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — Hawai'i vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatHawai'iOpponents
Scoring
Points273407
Points / Game22.833.9
First Downs
Total238274
Rushing101124
Passing120129
Penalty1721
Rushing
Attempts420480
Yards2,0182,522
Yards / Carry4.85.3
Yards / Game168.2210.2
Touchdowns1523
Passing
Attempts423334
Completions260213
Completion %61.5%63.8%
Yards2,8142,983
Yards / Attempt6.78.9
Touchdowns1929
Interceptions89
Passer Rating128.39162.06
Total Offense
Plays843814
Yards4,8325,505
Yards / Play5.76.8
Yards / Game402.7458.8
Punt Returns
Returns627
Yards30201
Average5.07.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4147
Yards812957
Average19.820.4
Touchdowns02
Punting
Punts5844
Yards2,4401,776
Average42.140.4
Interception Returns
Returns98
Yards13079
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1618
Lost66
Penalties
Penalties9368
Yards826619
Yards / Game68.851.6
Time of Possession
Per Game31:2828:32
Third Downs
Attempts167164
Conversions6480
Conversion %38.3%48.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2818
Conversions1012
Conversion %35.7%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips4350
Scores (TD + FG)3040
Score %69.8%80.0%
Touchdowns2633
TD %60.5%66.0%
Field Goals
Attempts918
Made48
Pct44.4%44.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3554
Made3351
Pct94.3%94.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →