← All Teams
CLT
Charlotte
49ersBalancedAmerican Conference1-11#134 (-21.35)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
1· FOverall
Offense
2· FRating
1· FPer play
0· FConsistency
5· FBig plays
Defense
6· FRating
12· FPer play
2· FConsistency
Situational
1· FRed-zone O
6· FRed-zone D
34· D3rd down O
23· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.212
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.095
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.230
Defensive EPA/play
+0.100
lower = better
Off Success Rate
38.6%
Def Success Rate
50.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.329
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.220
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.06
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.33
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.79
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.31
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#134
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#136
model 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 55 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Charlotte ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense0th
Opp-adjusted defense16th
Offensive EPA/play1th
Defensive EPA/play13th
Offensive success rate0th
Explosiveness4th
Defensive havoc1th
Points per drive0th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Akron2019OA -0.284 / -0.080similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA4372Illinois2017OA -0.133 / -0.054similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3903Massachusetts2019OA -0.199 / -0.324similar: havoc rate, passing offense, defensive success rate3574Rutgers2019OA -0.170 / -0.065similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3575NC State2026OA -0.050 / -0.006similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, offensive EPA355
2025 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs App State | 11-34 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs North Carolina | 3-20 | L | +14.5 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Monmouth (NJ) | 42-35 | W | +2.5 | L | 42.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Rice | 17-28 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | @ South Florida | 26-54 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | @ Army | 7-24 | L | +18.0 | W | 46.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Temple | 14-49 | L | +20.5 | L | 61.5 | O |
| 9 | vs North Texas | 20-54 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | @ East Carolina | 22-48 | L | +31.5 | W | 72.5 | U |
| 12 | vs UTSA | 7-28 | L | +17.0 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Georgia | 3-35 | L | +43.5 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 14 | @ Tulane | 0-27 | L | +30.0 | W | 51.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
5-6
45.5%
O/U Record
4-7
36.4%
Straight Up
1-11
8.3%
Home ATS0-6
Away ATS5-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS5-6
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.204 | 1th | +0.061 | 23th |
| Red Zone | -0.476 | 1th | +0.252 | 6th |
| Third Down | -0.007 | 35th | +0.166 | 24th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.222 | 1th | +0.097 | 13th |
| First Half | -0.236 | 1th | +0.091 | 13th |
| Second Half | -0.172 | 4th | +0.027 | 37th |
| Early Downs | -0.157 | 5th | +0.084 | 10th |
| Passing Downs | -0.305 | 1th | +0.008 | 41th |
| Standard Downs | -0.141 | 5th | +0.083 | 13th |
| Goal to Go | -0.065 | 41th | +0.196 | 23th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 51.1%Rush 48.9%
Havoc/Game
8.8
Havoc Rate
11.5%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
9.8
Yards/Game
285.8
Pts/Drive
1.06
3rd Down%
34.5%
3&Out%
33.6%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 12 games — Charlotte vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Charlotte | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 172 | 436 |
| Points / Game | 14.3 | 36.3 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 187 | 311 |
| Rushing | 64 | 136 |
| Passing | 107 | 157 |
| Penalty | 16 | 18 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 364 | 484 |
| Yards | 981 | 2,403 |
| Yards / Carry | 2.7 | 5.0 |
| Yards / Game | 81.8 | 200.3 |
| Touchdowns | 5 | 30 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 380 | 402 |
| Completions | 225 | 274 |
| Completion % | 59.2% | 68.2% |
| Yards | 2,448 | 3,260 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.4 | 8.1 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 24 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 7 |
| Passer Rating | 118.64 | 152.50 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 744 | 886 |
| Yards | 3,429 | 5,663 |
| Yards / Play | 4.6 | 6.4 |
| Yards / Game | 285.8 | 471.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 22 |
| Yards | 104 | 171 |
| Average | 10.4 | 7.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 8 |
| Yards | 548 | 158 |
| Average | 24.9 | 19.8 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 73 | 39 |
| Yards | 3,042 | 1,680 |
| Average | 41.7 | 43.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 13 |
| Yards | 104 | 239 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 13 |
| Lost | 10 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 73 | 51 |
| Yards | 610 | 550 |
| Yards / Game | 50.8 | 45.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:07 | 31:51 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 171 | 155 |
| Conversions | 59 | 68 |
| Conversion % | 34.5% | 43.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 26 |
| Conversions | 11 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 45.8% | 57.7% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 29 | 55 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 18 | 47 |
| Score % | 62.1% | 85.5% |
| Touchdowns | 13 | 42 |
| TD % | 44.8% | 76.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 12 | 18 |
| Made | 9 | 12 |
| Pct | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 56 |
| Made | 15 | 56 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 1 |
| Made | 5 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.