Fourth Down Data
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MASS

Massachusetts

MinutemenBalanced
Mid-American Conference1-11#135 (-45.79)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

0· FOverall
Offense
2· FRating
7· FPer play
7· FConsistency
12· FBig plays
Defense
0· FRating
0· FPer play
0· FConsistency
Situational
44· CRed-zone O
1· FRed-zone D
48· C3rd down O
26· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.199
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.324
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.172
Defensive EPA/play
+0.291
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.6%
Def Success Rate
56.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
29.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.463
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.171
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.38

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.30
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.96
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.10
own return game
Return Defense
-0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#135
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 60 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Massachusetts ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
1th
Opp-adjusted defense
0th
Offensive EPA/play
7th
Defensive EPA/play
0th
Offensive success rate
7th
Explosiveness
12th
Defensive havoc
1th
Points per drive
7th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Charlotte2025OA -0.212 / -0.095similar: havoc rate, passing offense, defensive success rate3572UConn2019OA -0.151 / -0.176similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, defensive success rate3533Florida International2022OA -0.160 / -0.147similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, passing offense3494Louisville2018OA -0.146 / -0.121similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, havoc rate3355Bowling Green2019OA -0.182 / -0.074similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, offensive EPA333

2019 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Rutgers21-48L+17.0L54O
2vs Southern Illinois20-45L-6.5L79.5U
3@ Charlotte17-52L+20.5L66.5O
4vs Coastal Carolina28-62L+17.0L61.5O
5vs Akron37-29W+7.5W60.5O
6@ Florida International0-44L+28.0L70.5U
7@ Louisiana Tech21-69L+31.5L64.5O
9vs UConn35-56L+9.5L62O
10vs Liberty21-63L+24.0L72O
11@ Army7-63L+35.0L61O
12@ Northwestern6-45L+38.0L56.5U
13vs BYU24-56L+42.5W69O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
2-10
16.7%
O/U Record
9-3
75.0%
Straight Up
1-11
8.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS0-6
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS2-9
Last 5 ATS
LLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off10thRush Off10thRed Zone Off44th3rd Down Off49thPass Def10thRush Def0thRed Zone Def2th3rd Down Def26th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.14610th+0.1951th
Red Zone-0.06144th+0.2842th
Third Down+0.01749th+0.13826th
No Garbage Time-0.1628th+0.2850th
First Half-0.10816th+0.3510th
Second Half-0.1925th+0.00753th
Early Downs-0.1398th+0.1462th
Passing Downs-0.17310th+0.24710th
Standard Downs-0.12810th+0.1740th
Goal to Go-0.5674th+0.4252th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.7%Rush 52.3%
Havoc/Game
8.3
Havoc Rate
11.1%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
9.4
Yards/Game
293.1
Pts/Drive
1.38
3rd Down%
34.6%
3&Out%
30.8%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 12 games — Massachusetts vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMassachusettsOpponents
Scoring
Points237632
Points / Game19.852.7
First Downs
Total190311
Rushing76162
Passing94135
Penalty2014
Rushing
Attempts430549
Yards1,4953,589
Yards / Carry3.56.5
Yards / Game124.6299.1
Touchdowns1450
Passing
Attempts392318
Completions218217
Completion %55.6%68.2%
Yards2,0223,145
Yards / Attempt5.29.9
Touchdowns1532
Interceptions1610
Passer Rating103.41178.23
Total Offense
Plays822867
Yards3,5176,734
Yards / Play4.37.8
Yards / Game293.1561.2
Punt Returns
Returns1214
Yards102167
Average8.511.9
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns7529
Yards1,550629
Average20.721.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts7934
Yards3,1161,239
Average39.436.4
Interception Returns
Returns1016
Yards118222
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1115
Lost411
Penalties
Penalties8344
Yards764433
Yards / Game63.736.1
Time of Possession
Per Game26:0333:45
Third Downs
Attempts191142
Conversions6673
Conversion %34.6%51.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2918
Conversions1111
Conversion %37.9%61.1%
Red Zone
Trips3469
Scores (TD + FG)2661
Score %76.5%88.4%
Touchdowns2055
TD %58.8%79.7%
Field Goals
Attempts912
Made710
Pct77.8%83.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3185
Made3084
Pct96.8%98.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →