Fourth Down Data
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CAL

California

Golden BearsPass-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference4-8#106 (-4.94)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

22· DOverall
Offense
20· DRating
45· CPer play
18· DConsistency
56· CBig plays
Defense
52· CRating
23· DPer play
6· FConsistency
Situational
28· DRed-zone O
18· DRed-zone D
50· C3rd down O
73· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.088
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.023
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.029
Defensive EPA/play
+0.047
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.1%
Def Success Rate
51.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.076
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.102
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.82

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.81
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.31
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.37
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.38
own return game
Return Defense
-0.37
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#106
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#98
market 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#42
recruiting 64 spots higher
9 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where California ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
23th
Opp-adjusted defense
42th
Offensive EPA/play
46th
Defensive EPA/play
24th
Offensive success rate
18th
Explosiveness
57th
Defensive havoc
7th
Points per drive
32th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Stanford2026OA -0.036 / -0.136similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate4032Stanford2026OA -0.036 / -0.136similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate4033Louisville2026OA +0.042 / -0.002similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, pass defense3644UL Monroe2022OA +0.020 / -0.119similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, run defense3525San José State2018OA -0.139 / -0.048similar: havoc rate, pass defense, passing offense343

2022 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UC Davis34-13W-14.5W44O
2vs UNLV20-14W-12.5L48.5U
3@ Notre Dame17-24L+12.0W40.5O
4vs Arizona49-31W-3.0W50O
5@ Washington State9-28L+4.0L53.5U
7@ Colorado13-20L-14.5L48.25U
8vs Washington21-28L+7.5W56.5U
9vs Oregon24-42L+17.0L58O
10@ USC35-41L+21.5W60O
11@ Oregon State10-38L+14.0L49U
12vs Stanford27-20W+10.0W60.5O
13vs UCLA28-35L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off53thRush Off40thRed Zone Off28th3rd Down Off50thPass Def50thRush Def13thRed Zone Def18th3rd Down Def74th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01647th+0.04624th
Red Zone-0.11628th+0.16018th
Third Down+0.07650th-0.07474th
No Garbage Time-0.02945th+0.04523th
First Half-0.11722th-0.00945th
Second Half+0.08080th+0.1018th
Early Downs-0.05733th+0.09310th
Passing Downs+0.01953th-0.01850th
Standard Downs-0.03740th+0.07513th
Goal to Go-0.12534th+0.06035th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 59.4%Rush 40.6%
Havoc/Game
10.6
Havoc Rate
13.9%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
364.6
Pts/Drive
1.82
3rd Down%
35.3%
3&Out%
28.1%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 12 games — California vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCaliforniaOpponents
Scoring
Points287334
Points / Game23.927.8
First Downs
Total231281
Rushing68107
Passing139162
Penalty2412
Rushing
Attempts319426
Yards1,1591,795
Yards / Carry3.64.2
Yards / Game96.6149.6
Touchdowns1019
Passing
Attempts466457
Completions291300
Completion %62.4%65.6%
Yards3,2163,354
Yards / Attempt6.97.3
Touchdowns2323
Interceptions911
Passer Rating132.84139.09
Total Offense
Plays785883
Yards4,3755,149
Yards / Play5.65.8
Yards / Game364.6429.1
Punt Returns
Returns2223
Yards240229
Average10.910.0
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns1923
Yards333456
Average17.519.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6555
Yards2,9342,314
Average45.142.1
Interception Returns
Returns119
Yards12731
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1014
Lost37
Penalties
Penalties6372
Yards535648
Yards / Game44.654.0
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4331:18
Third Downs
Attempts167169
Conversions5966
Conversion %35.3%39.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2225
Conversions1215
Conversion %54.5%60.0%
Red Zone
Trips4048
Scores (TD + FG)3339
Score %82.5%81.3%
Touchdowns2433
TD %60.0%68.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1815
Made1211
Pct66.7%73.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3240
Made3139
Pct96.9%97.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts43
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →