Fourth Down Data
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ARK

Arkansas

RazorbacksBalanced
Southeastern Conference7-6#34 (+4.01)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

75· BOverall
Offense
62· CRating
56· CPer play
85· BConsistency
75· BBig plays
Defense
64· CRating
62· CPer play
35· DConsistency
Situational
93· ARed-zone O
70· BRed-zone D
78· B3rd down O
69· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.013
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.013
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.026
Defensive EPA/play
-0.033
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.6%
Def Success Rate
46.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.059
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.021
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.35

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.86
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.71
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.28
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.00
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#34
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#84
model 50 higher
Recruiting Rank
#25
recruiting 9 spots higher
23 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Arkansas ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
61th
Opp-adjusted defense
63th
Offensive EPA/play
57th
Defensive EPA/play
63th
Offensive success rate
91th
Explosiveness
75th
Defensive havoc
34th
Points per drive
60th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia2024OA +0.023 / +0.023similar: run defense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3672Ball State2020OA +0.028 / +0.019similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, run defense3463Missouri2018OA +0.102 / +0.102similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, pass defense3354Memphis2022OA +0.049 / +0.067similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, defensive success rate3325Missouri2017OA +0.143 / -0.049similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense329

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff70-0W----
2@ Oklahoma State31-39L+9.0W60.25O
3vs UAB37-27W-24.5L61.5O
4@ Auburn24-14W+2.5W56U
5@ Texas A&M17-21L+4.5W52U
6vs Tennessee19-14W+13.5W57U
8vs LSU10-34L+2.5L55.5U
9@ Mississippi State58-25W-6.5W58O
10vs Ole Miss31-63L+7.0L53.5O
12vs Texas10-20L+13.5W57.5U
13vs Louisiana Tech35-14W-21.5L49.5U
14@ Missouri21-28L+3.0L54.5U
18vs Texas Tech39-26W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off88thRush Off52thRed Zone Off94th3rd Down Off78thPass Def57thRush Def54thRed Zone Def71th3rd Down Def69th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06775th-0.02060th
Red Zone+0.29194th-0.10671th
Third Down+0.22678th+0.00569th
No Garbage Time+0.03864th-0.02759th
First Half+0.01752th-0.11082th
Second Half+0.12489th+0.07023th
Early Downs-0.02147th-0.05561th
Passing Downs+0.17888th-0.02357th
Standard Downs+0.01352th-0.01954th
Goal to Go+0.32493th+0.02444th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.6%Rush 54.4%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
16.8%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
459.5
Pts/Drive
2.35
3rd Down%
43.6%
3&Out%
16.8%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Arkansas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArkansasOpponents
Scoring
Points402325
Points / Game30.925.0
First Downs
Total314259
Rushing14985
Passing150143
Penalty1531
Rushing
Attempts494463
Yards2,4021,679
Yards / Carry4.93.6
Yards / Game184.8129.2
Touchdowns3415
Passing
Attempts414418
Completions255259
Completion %61.6%62.0%
Yards3,5713,210
Yards / Attempt8.67.7
Touchdowns1622
Interceptions910
Passer Rating142.46139.05
Total Offense
Plays908881
Yards5,9734,889
Yards / Play6.65.5
Yards / Game459.5376.1
Punt Returns
Returns119
Yards6852
Average6.25.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1520
Yards244445
Average16.322.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4161
Yards1,8552,408
Average45.239.5
Interception Returns
Returns109
Yards135197
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles3011
Lost145
Penalties
Penalties9385
Yards778701
Yards / Game59.853.9
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2529:35
Third Downs
Attempts165181
Conversions7265
Conversion %43.6%35.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2331
Conversions1416
Conversion %60.9%51.6%
Red Zone
Trips5447
Scores (TD + FG)4638
Score %85.2%80.9%
Touchdowns3826
TD %70.4%55.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2418
Made1715
Pct70.8%83.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4934
Made4934
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts15
Made05
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →