Fourth Down Data
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AF

Air Force

FalconsRun-Heavy
Mountain West Conference10-3#36 (+3.87)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

73· BOverall
Offense
63· CRating
76· BPer play
82· BConsistency
30· DBig plays
Defense
81· BRating
91· A-Per play
88· BConsistency
Situational
63· CRed-zone O
98· A+Red-zone D
65· C3rd down O
70· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.034
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.042
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.075
Defensive EPA/play
-0.161
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.4%
Def Success Rate
42.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.236
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.055
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.62

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.13
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.06
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.95
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.56
own return game
Return Defense
+0.44
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#36
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#10
market 26 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 39 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Air Force ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
63th
Opp-adjusted defense
68th
Offensive EPA/play
76th
Defensive EPA/play
92th
Offensive success rate
86th
Explosiveness
30th
Defensive havoc
81th
Points per drive
78th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia2017OA +0.162 / +0.179similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3802Minnesota2021OA +0.109 / +0.102similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, takeaway rate3643BYU2025OA +0.104 / +0.062similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3614Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, offensive success rate3585Ohio State2025OA +0.173 / +0.241similar: run defense, rushing offense, turnover rate356

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Northern Iowa48-17W-14.5W44.5O
2vs Colorado41-10W-16.5L47U
3@ Wyoming14-17L-24.0W46O
4vs Nevada48-20W----
5vs Navy13-10W-14.0L37.5U
6@ Utah State27-34L-10.5L54.5O
7@ UNLV42-7W-10.0W50U
8vs Boise State14-19L-3.0L47.5U
10@ Army13-7W-7.0L40U
11vs New Mexico35-3W-22.5W37.5O
12vs Colorado State24-12W-22.0L44U
13@ San Diego State13-3W-1.5W44U
17vs Baylor30-15W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS5-3
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS6-6
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off56thRush Off84thRed Zone Off64th3rd Down Off65thPass Def90thRush Def76thRed Zone Def99th3rd Down Def70th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07276th-0.13491th
Red Zone+0.07564th-0.49399th
Third Down+0.15965th-0.05370th
No Garbage Time+0.07877th-0.16593th
First Half+0.08676th-0.11581th
Second Half+0.06074th-0.15493th
Early Downs+0.03773th-0.04057th
Passing Downs+0.03556th-0.20390th
Standard Downs+0.08784th-0.09476th
Goal to Go+0.43097th-0.09959th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 9.8%Rush 90.2%
Havoc/Game
10.9
Havoc Rate
21.2%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
13.0
Yards/Game
397.2
Pts/Drive
2.62
3rd Down%
44.9%
3&Out%
13.3%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Air Force vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatAir ForceOpponents
Scoring
Points362174
Points / Game27.813.4
First Downs
Total265168
Rushing22471
Passing3291
Penalty96
Rushing
Attempts802366
Yards4,2471,239
Yards / Carry5.33.4
Yards / Game326.795.3
Touchdowns3710
Passing
Attempts87291
Completions41170
Completion %47.1%58.4%
Yards9162,068
Yards / Attempt10.57.1
Touchdowns810
Interceptions29
Passer Rating161.31123.27
Total Offense
Plays889657
Yards5,1633,307
Yards / Play5.85.0
Yards / Game397.2254.4
Punt Returns
Returns49
Yards1128
Average2.83.1
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns535
Yards54593
Average10.816.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3462
Yards1,3072,731
Average38.444.0
Interception Returns
Returns92
Yards8922
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles208
Lost117
Penalties
Penalties5159
Yards381421
Yards / Game29.332.4
Time of Possession
Per Game36:3323:27
Third Downs
Attempts176140
Conversions7939
Conversion %44.9%27.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2922
Conversions219
Conversion %72.4%40.9%
Red Zone
Trips4528
Scores (TD + FG)3921
Score %86.7%75.0%
Touchdowns2912
TD %64.4%42.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2116
Made1612
Pct76.2%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4517
Made4416
Pct97.8%94.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts03
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →