Fourth Down Data
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STAN

Stanford

CardinalBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference3-9#117 (-6.00)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

13· FOverall
Offense
24· DRating
13· FPer play
44· CConsistency
38· DBig plays
Defense
14· FRating
24· DPer play
3· FConsistency
Situational
27· DRed-zone O
32· DRed-zone D
55· C3rd down O
24· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.041
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.020
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.120
Defensive EPA/play
+0.059
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.7%
Def Success Rate
50.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.180
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.101
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.76

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.13
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.08
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.14
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#117
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#121
model 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#35
recruiting 82 spots higher
13 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Stanford ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
16th
Opp-adjusted defense
27th
Offensive EPA/play
13th
Defensive EPA/play
24th
Offensive success rate
43th
Explosiveness
38th
Defensive havoc
31th
Points per drive
17th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Texas State2021OA -0.092 / -0.137similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, defensive EPA3762Old Dominion2017OA -0.153 / -0.078similar: run defense, offensive EPA, passing offense3533Tulsa2025OA -0.071 / -0.025similar: rushing offense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3514Temple2020OA -0.032 / -0.019similar: run defense, defensive EPA, pass defense3465Old Dominion2019OA -0.203 / -0.027similar: passing offense, havoc rate, offensive EPA345

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs TCU27-34L----
2vs Cal Poly41-7W-35.0L59.5U
4@ Syracuse26-24W----
5@ Clemson14-40L+21.5L57.5U
6vs Virginia Tech7-31L+8.0L49.5U
7@ Notre Dame7-49L+23.5L45O
8vs SMU10-40L+14.8L53.5U
9vs Wake Forest24-27L+3.0P54U
10@ NC State28-59L+9.5L46.5O
12vs Louisville38-35W+20.0W57.5O
13@ California21-24L+14.0W54U
14@ San José State31-34L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7-1
36.4%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS4-6
Last 5 ATS
PLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off6thRush Off27thRed Zone Off28th3rd Down Off55thPass Def45thRush Def21thRed Zone Def32th3rd Down Def25th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.10713th+0.05025th
Red Zone-0.09828th+0.08832th
Third Down+0.12555th+0.19925th
No Garbage Time-0.11213th+0.06820th
First Half-0.10419th+0.12610th
Second Half-0.11012th-0.01757th
Early Downs-0.10013th+0.02928th
Passing Downs-0.2216th+0.02745th
Standard Downs-0.04527th+0.06021th
Goal to Go-0.3757th-0.16578th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.8%Rush 54.2%
Havoc/Game
11.2
Havoc Rate
16.4%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
13.9
Yards/Game
323.9
Pts/Drive
1.76
3rd Down%
34.6%
3&Out%
15.4%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — Stanford vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatStanfordOpponents
Scoring
Points274404
Points / Game22.833.7
First Downs
Total223254
Rushing8987
Passing112149
Penalty2218
Rushing
Attempts437379
Yards1,5921,602
Yards / Carry3.64.2
Yards / Game132.7133.5
Touchdowns1121
Passing
Attempts370398
Completions224263
Completion %60.5%66.1%
Yards2,2953,367
Yards / Attempt6.28.5
Touchdowns1831
Interceptions179
Passer Rating119.51158.32
Total Offense
Plays807777
Yards3,8874,969
Yards / Play4.86.4
Yards / Game323.9414.1
Punt Returns
Returns1619
Yards166159
Average10.48.4
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1430
Yards245666
Average17.522.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4540
Yards1,9001,738
Average42.243.5
Interception Returns
Returns917
Yards16864
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles2217
Lost58
Penalties
Penalties6581
Yards588742
Yards / Game49.061.8
Time of Possession
Per Game31:3828:18
Third Downs
Attempts162146
Conversions5667
Conversion %34.6%45.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts4116
Conversions239
Conversion %56.1%56.3%
Red Zone
Trips4150
Scores (TD + FG)3243
Score %78.0%86.0%
Touchdowns2435
TD %58.5%70.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1717
Made1413
Pct82.4%76.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3250
Made3249
Pct100.0%98.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →