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MSU
Michigan State
SpartansBalancedBig Ten Conference7-6#45 (+3.12)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
66· COverall
Offense
10· FRating
7· FPer play
10· FConsistency
2· FBig plays
Defense
98· A+Rating
98· A+Per play
98· A+Consistency
Situational
4· FRed-zone O
93· ARed-zone D
2· F3rd down O
96· A3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.123
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.238
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.175
Defensive EPA/play
-0.239
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.0%
Def Success Rate
38.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
18.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
18.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.064
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.084
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.34
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.33
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.01
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.34
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
+0.10
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#45
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#23
recruiting 22 spots higher
22 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Michigan State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense11th
Opp-adjusted defense99th
Offensive EPA/play7th
Defensive EPA/play99th
Offensive success rate11th
Explosiveness2th
Defensive havoc92th
Points per drive5th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Utah2024OA -0.058 / +0.063similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense4142San Diego State2022OA -0.107 / +0.044similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, rushing offense3843Iowa2022OA -0.183 / +0.202similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3794Pittsburgh2019OA -0.088 / +0.099similar: rushing offense, pass defense, turnover rate3725TCU2018OA -0.079 / +0.129similar: pass defense, passing offense, rushing offense362
2018 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Utah State | 38-31 | W | -1.0 | L | 47 | U |
| 2 | @ Arizona State | 13-16 | L | -4.5 | L | 54 | U |
| 4 | @ Indiana | 35-21 | W | -5.5 | W | 51 | O |
| 5 | vs Central Michigan | 31-20 | W | -27.5 | L | 46 | O |
| 6 | vs Northwestern | 19-29 | L | -10.5 | L | 43 | O |
| 7 | @ Penn State | 21-17 | W | +13.5 | W | 53.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Michigan | 7-21 | L | +7.5 | L | 38.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Purdue | 23-13 | W | +2.5 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Maryland | 24-3 | W | -3.0 | W | 43 | U |
| 11 | vs Ohio State | 6-26 | L | +3.0 | L | 50 | U |
| 12 | @ Nebraska | 6-9 | L | +1.5 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 13 | vs Rutgers | 14-10 | W | -24.5 | L | 37 | U |
| 18 | @ Oregon | 6-7 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
3-9
25.0%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-5
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.175 | 4th | -0.225 | 99th |
| Red Zone | -0.292 | 5th | -0.292 | 94th |
| Third Down | -0.349 | 2th | -0.317 | 97th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.175 | 6th | -0.239 | 99th |
| First Half | -0.196 | 7th | -0.294 | 99th |
| Second Half | -0.154 | 5th | -0.160 | 95th |
| Early Downs | -0.119 | 11th | -0.138 | 95th |
| Passing Downs | -0.272 | 2th | -0.271 | 97th |
| Standard Downs | -0.117 | 9th | -0.197 | 99th |
| Goal to Go | -0.447 | 4th | -0.392 | 93th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 51.7%Rush 48.3%
Havoc/Game
16.1
Havoc Rate
23.4%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
13.4
Yards/Game
342.1
Pts/Drive
1.34
3rd Down%
33.5%
3&Out%
24.7%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 13 games — Michigan State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Michigan State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 243 | 223 |
| Points / Game | 18.7 | 17.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 263 | 213 |
| Rushing | 92 | 55 |
| Passing | 146 | 139 |
| Penalty | 25 | 19 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 465 | 392 |
| Yards | 1,623 | 1,013 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.5 | 2.6 |
| Yards / Game | 124.8 | 77.9 |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 8 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 497 | 477 |
| Completions | 255 | 280 |
| Completion % | 51.3% | 58.7% |
| Yards | 2,824 | 2,928 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.7 | 6.1 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 14 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 101.37 | 114.08 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 962 | 869 |
| Yards | 4,447 | 3,941 |
| Yards / Play | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| Yards / Game | 342.1 | 303.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 28 |
| Yards | 142 | 151 |
| Average | 6.2 | 5.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 19 | 29 |
| Yards | 450 | 520 |
| Average | 23.7 | 17.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 86 | 87 |
| Yards | 3,371 | 3,656 |
| Average | 39.2 | 42.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 14 |
| Yards | 154 | 170 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 26 | 21 |
| Lost | 8 | 9 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 78 | 68 |
| Yards | 711 | 634 |
| Yards / Game | 54.7 | 48.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:49 | 27:11 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 206 | 192 |
| Conversions | 69 | 58 |
| Conversion % | 33.5% | 30.2% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 17 |
| Conversions | 7 | 6 |
| Conversion % | 33.3% | 35.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 41 | 30 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 34 | 24 |
| Score % | 82.9% | 80.0% |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 12 |
| TD % | 48.8% | 40.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 23 |
| Made | 18 | 17 |
| Pct | 81.8% | 73.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 22 |
| Made | 25 | 22 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 2 |
| Made | 1 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.