Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
UL

Louisiana

Ragin' CajunsRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference7-7#84 (-1.20)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

37· DOverall
Offense
82· BRating
86· BPer play
60· CConsistency
86· BBig plays
Defense
10· FRating
6· FPer play
24· DConsistency
Situational
85· BRed-zone O
25· DRed-zone D
95· A3rd down O
15· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.079
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.152
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.121
Defensive EPA/play
+0.148
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.9%
Def Success Rate
49.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.028
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.166
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.85

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.14
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.20
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.17
own return game
Return Defense
-0.11
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#84
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
recruiting 7 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisiana ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
79th
Opp-adjusted defense
5th
Offensive EPA/play
87th
Defensive EPA/play
6th
Offensive success rate
70th
Explosiveness
87th
Defensive havoc
8th
Points per drive
89th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Texas2022OA +0.077 / -0.108similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive success rate3872West Virginia2024OA +0.027 / -0.079similar: havoc rate, passing offense, defensive success rate3733Kansas2022OA +0.219 / -0.086similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, havoc rate3664UL Monroe2017OA +0.077 / -0.247similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, pass defense3595UCLA2022OA +0.171 / -0.041similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, pass defense355

2018 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Grambling State49-17W+3.5L60.5O
3@ Mississippi State10-56L+34.0L62.5O
4vs Coastal Carolina28-30L-3.0L61.5U
5@ Alabama14-56L+49.0W70P
6@ Texas State42-27W-3.0W57.5O
7vs New Mexico State66-38W-7.5W66.5O
8@ App State17-27L+25.0W65U
9vs Arkansas State47-43W+3.0W69O
10@ Troy16-26L+7.5L64.5U
11vs Georgia State36-22W-13.5W70U
12vs South Alabama48-38W-19.0L66O
13@ UL Monroe31-28W+1.5W71U
14@ App State19-30L+17.5W54U
16vs Tulane24-41L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
6-6-1
50.0%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off90thRush Off87thRed Zone Off86th3rd Down Off96thPass Def11thRush Def4thRed Zone Def25th3rd Down Def15th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12489th+0.1653th
Red Zone+0.16086th+0.14325th
Third Down+0.40996th+0.25315th
No Garbage Time+0.12088th+0.1515th
First Half+0.10183th+0.1837th
Second Half+0.14993th+0.1466th
Early Downs+0.04069th+0.1019th
Passing Downs+0.19290th+0.17111th
Standard Downs+0.09087th+0.1624th
Goal to Go+0.21278th+0.16336th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.6%Rush 61.4%
Havoc/Game
10.1
Havoc Rate
14.3%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
14.6
Yards/Game
424.3
Pts/Drive
2.85
3rd Down%
47.0%
3&Out%
17.8%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 14 games — Louisiana vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisianaOpponents
Scoring
Points447479
Points / Game31.934.2
First Downs
Total276316
Rushing140160
Passing118134
Penalty1822
Rushing
Attempts553618
Yards3,0623,067
Yards / Carry5.55.0
Yards / Game218.7219.1
Touchdowns3137
Passing
Attempts348348
Completions220216
Completion %63.2%62.1%
Yards2,8783,035
Yards / Attempt8.38.7
Touchdowns2722
Interceptions148
Passer Rating150.24151.59
Total Offense
Plays901966
Yards5,9406,102
Yards / Play6.66.3
Yards / Game424.3435.9
Punt Returns
Returns2112
Yards86138
Average4.111.5
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns5048
Yards1,2071,106
Average24.123.0
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5448
Yards2,1241,976
Average39.341.2
Interception Returns
Returns814
Yards7190
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1411
Lost37
Penalties
Penalties6967
Yards608592
Yards / Game43.442.3
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3231:27
Third Downs
Attempts181188
Conversions8585
Conversion %47.0%45.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1929
Conversions821
Conversion %42.1%72.4%
Red Zone
Trips4860
Scores (TD + FG)4351
Score %89.6%85.0%
Touchdowns3542
TD %72.9%70.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1820
Made1515
Pct83.3%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5560
Made5458
Pct98.2%96.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →