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Louisiana Tech

BulldogsRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference8-5#91 (-6.16)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

33· DOverall
Offense
11· FRating
18· DPer play
19· DConsistency
37· DBig plays
Defense
53· CRating
68· CPer play
74· BConsistency
Situational
39· DRed-zone O
91· A-Red-zone D
34· D3rd down O
30· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.114
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.009
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.093
Defensive EPA/play
-0.072
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.2%
Def Success Rate
43.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.020
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.084
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.86

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.83
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.77
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.84
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.16
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#91
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#73
market 18 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 12 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisiana Tech ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
10th
Opp-adjusted defense
47th
Offensive EPA/play
18th
Defensive EPA/play
69th
Offensive success rate
22th
Explosiveness
38th
Defensive havoc
87th
Points per drive
27th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Auburn2023OA -0.094 / +0.044similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, rushing offense3522South Florida2019OA -0.055 / +0.051similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, passing offense3423Florida International2025OA -0.074 / -0.025similar: run defense, turnover rate, rushing offense3364UNLV2026OA -0.009 / +0.000similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3335Washington2026OA -0.025 / +0.023similar: takeaway rate, pass defense, offensive success rate330

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Southeastern Louisiana24-0W-14.5W49.5U
2@ LSU7-23L+36.5W49.5U
3vs New Mexico State49-14W-10.0W42.5O
4vs Southern Miss30-20W-3.0W51U
5@ UTEP30-11W-3.5W48U
7@ Kennesaw State7-35L----
9vs Western Kentucky27-28L-16.5W48.5O
10vs Sam Houston55-14W----
11@ Delaware24-25L-3.5L43.5O
12@ Washington State3-28L+8.5L43.5U
13vs Liberty34-28W+13.5W46.5O
14@ Missouri State42-30W-5.5W65.5O
19vs Coastal Carolina23-14W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS6-4
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off12thRush Off33thRed Zone Off39th3rd Down Off34thPass Def45thRush Def90thRed Zone Def92th3rd Down Def30th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.09019th-0.07975th
Red Zone-0.06039th-0.27792th
Third Down-0.00834th+0.14530th
No Garbage Time-0.09520th-0.08174th
First Half-0.05330th+0.00641th
Second Half-0.1299th-0.16595th
Early Downs-0.01547th-0.13690th
Passing Downs-0.20612th-0.00545th
Standard Downs-0.03233th-0.12790th
Goal to Go-0.23713th-0.54699th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 36.8%Rush 63.2%
Havoc/Game
15.2
Havoc Rate
21.5%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
13.3
Yards/Game
359.2
Pts/Drive
1.86
3rd Down%
41.0%
3&Out%
27.9%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Louisiana Tech vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisiana TechOpponents
Scoring
Points355270
Points / Game27.320.8
First Downs
Total249269
Rushing13296
Passing89135
Penalty2838
Rushing
Attempts538416
Yards2,5401,749
Yards / Carry4.74.2
Yards / Game195.4134.5
Touchdowns2913
Passing
Attempts313484
Completions195266
Completion %62.3%55.0%
Yards2,1293,124
Yards / Attempt6.86.5
Touchdowns819
Interceptions1022
Passer Rating121.48113.04
Total Offense
Plays851900
Yards4,6694,873
Yards / Play5.55.4
Yards / Game359.2374.8
Punt Returns
Returns2523
Yards263162
Average10.57.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns287
Yards657141
Average23.520.1
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts6665
Yards3,1202,718
Average47.341.8
Interception Returns
Returns2210
Yards312115
Touchdowns50
Fumbles
Fumbles1110
Lost73
Penalties
Penalties101104
Yards1,020875
Yards / Game78.567.3
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2930:31
Third Downs
Attempts178184
Conversions7372
Conversion %41.0%39.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1622
Conversions88
Conversion %50.0%36.4%
Red Zone
Trips3839
Scores (TD + FG)3128
Score %81.6%71.8%
Touchdowns2319
TD %60.5%48.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2024
Made1215
Pct60.0%62.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4127
Made3927
Pct95.1%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts45
Made23
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →