Fourth Down Data
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BC

Boston College

EaglesRun-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference6-7#63 (+0.71)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

53· COverall
Offense
78· BRating
83· BPer play
55· CConsistency
70· BBig plays
Defense
25· DRating
16· DPer play
28· DConsistency
Situational
64· CRed-zone O
57· CRed-zone D
53· C3rd down O
10· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.106
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.094
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.105
Defensive EPA/play
+0.096
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.6%
Def Success Rate
47.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.009
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.289
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.55

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.71
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.50
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.31
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#63
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#64
model 1 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Boston College ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
88th
Opp-adjusted defense
16th
Offensive EPA/play
84th
Defensive EPA/play
16th
Offensive success rate
42th
Explosiveness
71th
Defensive havoc
44th
Points per drive
75th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida2022OA +0.127 / -0.042similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, passing offense3462Georgia State2023OA +0.002 / -0.083similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, passing offense3343East Carolina2022OA +0.119 / -0.021similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3344Charlotte2020OA +0.009 / -0.027similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3185Stanford2017OA +0.093 / -0.043similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, defensive success rate318

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Virginia Tech35-28W+8.0L53U
2vs Richmond45-13W-33.5L56O
3vs Kansas24-48L-18.5L51O
4@ Rutgers30-16W-7.5W57.5U
5vs Wake Forest24-27L+4.5W69U
6@ Louisville39-41L+3.5W61O
8vs NC State45-24W+4.5W54O
9@ Clemson7-59L+35.0L59O
10@ Syracuse58-27W+3.0W59O
11vs Florida State31-38L-1.5L64O
13@ Notre Dame7-40L+21.0L65.5U
14@ Pittsburgh26-19W+8.0W52U
19@ Cincinnati6-38L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
LWLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off66thRush Off67thRed Zone Off65th3rd Down Off54thPass Def6thRush Def57thRed Zone Def57th3rd Down Def10th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05269th+0.08916th
Red Zone+0.03665th-0.03357th
Third Down+0.04554th+0.27910th
No Garbage Time+0.09883th+0.09417th
First Half+0.14488th+0.09024th
Second Half-0.05628th+0.08816th
Early Downs+0.04769th-0.02663th
Passing Downs+0.07866th+0.2916th
Standard Downs+0.03767th-0.01457th
Goal to Go+0.36992th-0.37589th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 31.6%Rush 68.4%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
18.1%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
16.3
Yards/Game
429.2
Pts/Drive
2.55
3rd Down%
43.0%
3&Out%
21.6%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Boston College vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBoston CollegeOpponents
Scoring
Points377418
Points / Game29.032.2
First Downs
Total277306
Rushing172127
Passing95166
Penalty1013
Rushing
Attempts659527
Yards3,2912,512
Yards / Carry5.04.8
Yards / Game253.2193.2
Touchdowns2719
Passing
Attempts305456
Completions161297
Completion %52.8%65.1%
Yards2,2883,711
Yards / Attempt7.58.1
Touchdowns2029
Interceptions610
Passer Rating133.51150.09
Total Offense
Plays964983
Yards5,5796,223
Yards / Play5.86.3
Yards / Game429.2478.7
Punt Returns
Returns1827
Yards159149
Average8.85.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4622
Yards978465
Average21.321.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6759
Yards2,8412,448
Average42.441.5
Interception Returns
Returns106
Yards6141
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1715
Lost67
Penalties
Penalties6676
Yards486538
Yards / Game37.441.4
Time of Possession
Per Game27:4932:11
Third Downs
Attempts207211
Conversions8998
Conversion %43.0%46.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2422
Conversions1315
Conversion %54.2%68.2%
Red Zone
Trips4853
Scores (TD + FG)3948
Score %81.3%90.6%
Touchdowns2931
TD %60.4%58.5%
Field Goals
Attempts1828
Made1225
Pct66.7%89.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4549
Made4549
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts40
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →