Fourth Down Data
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ARMY

Army

Black KnightsRun-Heavy
American Conference10-3#58 (+2.88)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

57· COverall
Offense
84· BRating
95· APer play
97· A+Consistency
94· ABig plays
Defense
23· DRating
9· FPer play
12· FConsistency
Situational
97· A+Red-zone O
77· BRed-zone D
97· A+3rd down O
16· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.150
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.140
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.173
Defensive EPA/play
+0.115
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.8%
Def Success Rate
50.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.057
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.138
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.07

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.78
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.08
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.97
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.14
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#58
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 17 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Army ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
95th
Opp-adjusted defense
8th
Offensive EPA/play
95th
Defensive EPA/play
9th
Offensive success rate
99th
Explosiveness
95th
Defensive havoc
32th
Points per drive
95th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Kansas2024OA +0.048 / -0.020similar: rushing offense, run defense, offensive EPA2812Navy2026OA +0.039 / -0.148similar: passing offense, turnover rate, defensive EPA2813Georgia Tech2018OA +0.123 / -0.089similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, defensive success rate2774Minnesota2020OA +0.029 / -0.040similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, takeaway rate2755Navy2017OA +0.069 / -0.058similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, pass defense271

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Fordham64-6W+6.5W47O
2vs Buffalo21-17W-15.0L54U
3@ Ohio State7-38L+32.5W55U
4@ Tulane17-21L+3.0L45U
5vs UTEP35-21W-21.5L49O
6@ Rice49-12W-13.0W48O
7vs Eastern Michigan28-27W-4.5L51O
8vs Temple31-28W-7.0L48O
10@ Air Force21-0W+6.5W54.5U
11vs Duke21-16W+3.5W51U
12@ North Texas49-52L+2.0L59.5O
15@ Navy14-13W+2.5W43.5U
17vs San Diego State42-35W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS1-4
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off86thRush Off98thRed Zone Off98th3rd Down Off98thPass Def26thRush Def9thRed Zone Def78th3rd Down Def16th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.16494th+0.1088th
Red Zone+0.35798th-0.14678th
Third Down+0.38998th+0.18716th
No Garbage Time+0.19195th+0.1268th
First Half+0.22197th+0.13410th
Second Half+0.11488th+0.07615th
Early Downs+0.10893th+0.07613th
Passing Downs+0.16686th+0.09026th
Standard Downs+0.16398th+0.1169th
Goal to Go+0.44495th+0.3069th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 7.6%Rush 92.4%
Havoc/Game
9.3
Havoc Rate
16.6%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
16.0
Yards/Game
390.1
Pts/Drive
3.07
3rd Down%
55.2%
3&Out%
10.3%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Army vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArmyOpponents
Scoring
Points399286
Points / Game30.722.0
First Downs
Total270236
Rushing241115
Passing16106
Penalty1315
Rushing
Attempts785423
Yards4,7102,248
Yards / Carry6.05.3
Yards / Game362.3172.9
Touchdowns5023
Passing
Attempts65304
Completions20190
Completion %30.8%62.5%
Yards3612,298
Yards / Attempt5.67.6
Touchdowns214
Interceptions66
Passer Rating69.11137.25
Total Offense
Plays850727
Yards5,0714,546
Yards / Play6.06.3
Yards / Game390.1349.7
Punt Returns
Returns127
Yards10961
Average9.18.7
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3848
Yards712981
Average18.720.4
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts2745
Yards1,1411,612
Average42.335.8
Interception Returns
Returns66
Yards93121
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles614
Lost49
Penalties
Penalties5563
Yards472498
Yards / Game36.338.3
Time of Possession
Per Game34:4425:16
Third Downs
Attempts165137
Conversions9155
Conversion %55.2%40.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3019
Conversions1914
Conversion %63.3%73.7%
Red Zone
Trips5134
Scores (TD + FG)4424
Score %86.3%70.6%
Touchdowns4219
TD %82.4%55.9%
Field Goals
Attempts811
Made36
Pct37.5%54.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5236
Made5034
Pct96.2%94.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts34
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →