Fourth Down Data
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SJSU

San José State

SpartansPass-Heavy
Mountain West Conference7-6#101 (-4.61)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

25· DOverall
Offense
28· DRating
46· CPer play
54· CConsistency
46· CBig plays
Defense
30· DRating
60· CPer play
54· CConsistency
Situational
22· DRed-zone O
61· CRed-zone D
50· C3rd down O
16· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.005
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.004
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.001
Defensive EPA/play
-0.031
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.4%
Def Success Rate
44.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.030
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.144
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.13

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.72
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.87
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.71
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.14
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#101
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#83
market 18 higher
Recruiting Rank
#80
recruiting 21 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where San José State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
40th
Opp-adjusted defense
57th
Offensive EPA/play
46th
Defensive EPA/play
60th
Offensive success rate
56th
Explosiveness
46th
Defensive havoc
56th
Points per drive
43th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Temple2018OA +0.045 / +0.017similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3822Baylor2026OA +0.006 / +0.027similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, takeaway rate3543California2023OA -0.024 / -0.003similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3514Hawai'i2021OA -0.081 / -0.044similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, turnover rate3375Syracuse2023OA -0.019 / +0.045similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA332

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Sacramento State42-24W----
2@ Air Force17-7W+6.0W46U
3vs Kennesaw State31-10W+12.5W56O
4@ Washington State52-54L----
6vs Nevada35-31W-7.0L51O
7@ Colorado State24-31L-1.5L56U
8vs Wyoming24-14W-11.5L50.5U
9@ Fresno State10-33L+5.0L55U
11@ Oregon State24-13W+2.5W55.5U
12vs Boise State21-42L+7.5L62U
13vs UNLV16-27L-2.5W55.5O
14vs Stanford34-31W----
18vs South Florida39-41L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS3-5
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off63thRush Off28thRed Zone Off22th3rd Down Off50thPass Def51thRush Def69thRed Zone Def62th3rd Down Def16th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00443th-0.03566th
Red Zone-0.14622th-0.06662th
Third Down+0.10450th+0.27116th
No Garbage Time+0.00249th-0.02960th
First Half+0.02155th-0.05663th
Second Half-0.02731th-0.01354th
Early Downs-0.01353th-0.12287th
Passing Downs+0.07563th+0.00451th
Standard Downs-0.04428th-0.05669th
Goal to Go-0.04339th-0.12473th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 63.0%Rush 37.0%
Havoc/Game
14.4
Havoc Rate
18.9%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
15.0
Yards/Game
409.8
Pts/Drive
2.13
3rd Down%
39.9%
3&Out%
21.9%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — San José State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSan José StateOpponents
Scoring
Points369358
Points / Game28.427.5
First Downs
Total284279
Rushing71124
Passing180133
Penalty3322
Rushing
Attempts324545
Yards1,1451,921
Yards / Carry3.53.5
Yards / Game88.1147.8
Touchdowns1325
Passing
Attempts552435
Completions316268
Completion %57.2%61.6%
Yards4,1833,027
Yards / Attempt7.67.0
Touchdowns3116
Interceptions1621
Passer Rating133.64122.54
Total Offense
Plays876980
Yards5,3284,948
Yards / Play6.15.0
Yards / Game409.8380.6
Punt Returns
Returns816
Yards52110
Average6.56.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2232
Yards399668
Average18.120.9
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5752
Yards2,3762,313
Average41.744.5
Interception Returns
Returns2116
Yards145342
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles2415
Lost137
Penalties
Penalties91106
Yards784977
Yards / Game60.375.2
Time of Possession
Per Game26:2133:31
Third Downs
Attempts168210
Conversions6797
Conversion %39.9%46.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1732
Conversions916
Conversion %52.9%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips4854
Scores (TD + FG)3943
Score %81.3%79.6%
Touchdowns2933
TD %60.4%61.1%
Field Goals
Attempts1720
Made1216
Pct70.6%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4541
Made4540
Pct100.0%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts56
Made23
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →