Fourth Down Data
#7Alabama4-0 · SEC@#16Mississippi State4-0 · SEC
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Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM ET· Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field· Alabama -6 · O/U 60.5
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 74 mi / 0 miForecast: 83°F · wind 6 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Alabama -6 · O/U 60.5
total opened 59.5, now 60.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Alabama as road favorite
2026 overall: 3-1 ATS (4 games) · 4-0 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road favorite: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 1-2-1 ATS (4 games) · 2-1-1 O/U (4 games)
Since 2020: 14-18-1 ATS (33 games) · 19-13-1 O/U (33 games)
Mississippi State as home underdog
2026 overall: 4-0 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home underdog: none in this role
Last season (2025): 3-2 ATS (5 games) · 3-2 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 7-13-1 ATS (21 games) · 13-8 O/U (21 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalMississippi State · 5 of 9
471.5
Yards / game
533.3
4.40
Points / drive
3.69
5.3
TDs / game
5.5
45.8
3rd-down %
50.0
78.9
RZ TD %
66.7
1.3
Turnover margin
-0.3
2.8
Sacks / game
2.3
5.3
TFL / game
5.5
14.0
Havoc / game
15.3
41.9 / 58.1
Pass / Rush split
45.1 / 54.9
2026 · Situational matchup
When Alabama has the ball
Alabama's early-down offense ranks 3rd of 138. Mississippi State's early-down defense ranks 28th of 138.
Alabama's passing-down offense ranks 10th of 138. Mississippi State's passing-down defense ranks 87th of 138.
Alabama's third-down offense ranks 18th of 138. Mississippi State's third-down defense ranks 70th of 138.
Alabama's red-zone offense ranks 19th of 138. Mississippi State's red-zone defense ranks 14th of 138.
When Mississippi State has the ball
Mississippi State's early-down offense ranks 19th of 138. Alabama's early-down defense ranks 35th of 138.
Mississippi State's passing-down offense ranks 15th of 138. Alabama's passing-down defense ranks 43rd of 138.
Mississippi State's third-down offense ranks 37th of 138. Alabama's third-down defense ranks 38th of 138.
Mississippi State's red-zone offense ranks 104th of 138. Alabama's red-zone defense ranks 130th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(0.355 last 3 vs 0.350 season)
Defense formabout the same(-0.174 last 3 vs -0.154 season)
Offense formabout the same(0.218 last 3 vs 0.216 season)
▼Defense form-0.062 last 3 vs -0.114 season (+0.052)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingKeelon Russell — 1129 yd, 8 TD
RushingDaniel Hill — 225 yd, 4 TD
ReceivingRyan Coleman-Williams — 333 yd, 3 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingKamario Taylor — 1192 yd, 14 TD
RushingFluff Bothwell — 402 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingAnthony Evans III — 408 yd, 3 TD