Sat, Oct 17, 1:30 PM ET· Kelly/Shorts Stadium· Western Michigan -7.5 · O/U 43.5
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 99 mi / 0 miForecast: 48°F · wind 16 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Western Michigan -7.5 · O/U 43.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Western Michigan as road favorite
2026 overall: 2-3 ATS (5 games) · 2-3 O/U (5 games)
2026 as road favorite: 0-2 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 2-0-1 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
Since 2020: 8-7-2 ATS (17 games) · 10-7 O/U (17 games)
Central Michigan as home underdog
2026 overall: 2-4 ATS (6 games) · 2-4 O/U (6 games)
2026 as home underdog: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 0-1 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 0-1 ATS (1 game) · 0-1 O/U (1 game)
Since 2020: 8-2 ATS (10 games) · 3-7 O/U (10 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalWestern Michigan · 9 of 9
330.7
Yards / game
285.0
2.38
Points / drive
1.65
3.2
TDs / game
2.3
43.2
3rd-down %
36.4
66.7
RZ TD %
62.5
0.7
Turnover margin
0.0
2.2
Sacks / game
1.8
3.8
TFL / game
3.3
11.3
Havoc / game
10.8
40.5 / 59.5
Pass / Rush split
32.1 / 67.9
2026 · Situational matchup
When Western Michigan has the ball
Western Michigan's early-down offense ranks 47th of 138. Central Michigan's early-down defense ranks 41st of 138.
Western Michigan's passing-down offense ranks 40th of 138. Central Michigan's passing-down defense ranks 48th of 138.
Western Michigan's third-down offense ranks 27th of 138. Central Michigan's third-down defense ranks 112th of 138.
Western Michigan's red-zone offense ranks 26th of 138. Central Michigan's red-zone defense ranks 62nd of 138.
When Central Michigan has the ball
Central Michigan's early-down offense ranks 125th of 138. Western Michigan's early-down defense ranks 96th of 138.
Central Michigan's passing-down offense ranks 106th of 138. Western Michigan's passing-down defense ranks 111th of 138.
Central Michigan's third-down offense ranks 117th of 138. Western Michigan's third-down defense ranks 67th of 138.
Central Michigan's red-zone offense ranks 3rd of 138. Western Michigan's red-zone defense ranks 54th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(-0.013 last 3 vs 0.036 season)
▼Defense form0.050 last 3 vs -0.030 season (+0.080)
Offense formabout the same(-0.285 last 3 vs -0.266 season)
▼Defense form0.095 last 3 vs 0.008 season (+0.087)
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingBroc Lowry — 996 yd, 7 TD
RushingJalen Buckley — 392 yd, 5 TD
ReceivingAveion Chenault — 292 yd, 1 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingAngel Flores — 313 yd, 1 TD
RushingAngel Flores — 501 yd, 4 TD
ReceivingLangston Lewis — 142 yd, 1 TD
2026 · Collision map
Where each offense meets the other defense — FBS rank first, season value after.
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Early downs
Western Michigan offense
47thof 1380.067241 plays
vs
Central Michigan defense · allowed
41stof 138-0.063Western Michigan defense · allowed
96thof 1380.022vs
Central Michigan offense
125thof 138-0.121186 plays
Passing downs
Western Michigan offense
40thof 1380.167118 plays
vs
Central Michigan defense · allowed
48thof 138-0.089127 plays
Western Michigan defense · allowed
111thof 1380.147129 plays
vs
Central Michigan offense
106thof 138-0.109116 plays
Third down
Western Michigan offense
27thof 1380.29275 plays
vs
Central Michigan defense · allowed
112thof 1380.20578 plays
Western Michigan defense · allowed
67thof 1380.00781 plays
vs
Central Michigan offense
117thof 138-0.18978 plays
Red zone
Western Michigan offense
26thof 1380.20564 plays
vs
Central Michigan defense · allowed
62ndof 138-0.08567 plays
Western Michigan defense · allowed
54thof 138-0.10655 plays · small sample
vs
Central Michigan offense
3rdof 1380.44519 plays · small sample
Field advancement
Western Michigan offense
72ndof 13848.6%vs
Central Michigan defense · allowed
119thof 13851.3%Western Michigan defense · allowed
84thof 13844.9%vs
Central Michigan offense
130thof 13835.2%Away
Home
Western Michigan Offense vs Central Michigan DefenseWestern Michigan · 9 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.01#76
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#111-0.15
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
0.047#60
314 plays
EPA/Play
#77-0.003
allowed · 298 plays
-0.055#94
126 plays
EPA/Pass
#39-0.129
allowed · 135 plays
0.116#34
188 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#1100.102
allowed · 163 plays
49.4%#42
314 plays
Success Rate
#12149.3%
allowed · 298 plays
46.0%#57
Pass Success Rate
#8244.1%
allowed
51.6%#37
Rush Success Rate
#12952.5%
allowed
48.6%#72
Available Yards %
#11951.3%
allowed
69.5#55
Net Field Position
#12568.1
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
0.067#47
241 plays
Early Downs EPA/Play
#41-0.063
allowed
6.7#53
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#916.9
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Western Michigan Defense vs Central Michigan OffenseWestern Michigan · 9 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
0.08#46
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#124-0.30
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
-0.023#68
allowed · 329 plays
EPA/Play
#128-0.153
249 plays
-0.023#74
allowed · 132 plays
EPA/Pass
#138-0.537
71 plays
-0.023#61
allowed · 197 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#810.001
178 plays
48.3%#106
allowed · 329 plays
Success Rate
#11643.0%
249 plays
43.6%#76
allowed
Pass Success Rate
#13828.2%
53.6%#133
allowed
Rush Success Rate
#6448.9%
44.9%#84
allowed
Available Yards %
#13035.2%
75.2#11
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
Net Field Position
#11272.8
0.022#96
allowed
Early Downs EPA/Play
#125-0.121
186 plays
5.8#133
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#356.4
2026 · Situational EPAWestern Michigan · 5 of 6
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
0.049
315 plays
Non-garbage · Off
-0.151
252 plays
-0.023
329 plays
Non-garbage · Def (allowed)
-0.010
304 plays
0.205
64 plays
Red Zone · Off
0.445
19 plays · small sample
-0.106
55 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Def (allowed)
-0.085
67 plays
0.292
75 plays
3rd Down · Off
-0.189
78 plays
0.007
81 plays
3rd Down · Def (allowed)
0.205
78 plays