Fourth Down Data
Western Kentucky1-3 · Conference USA@New Mexico State1-3 · Conference USA
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Thu, Oct 1, 8:00 PM ET· Aggie Memorial Stadium· Elevation 3,964 ft· New Mexico State -2.5 · O/U 57.5
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 5d / 5dTravel 1,195 mi / 0 miForecast: 69°F · wind 10 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
New Mexico State -2.5 · O/U 57.5
opened New Mexico State -2, now New Mexico State -2.5 · total opened 54, now 57.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Western Kentucky as road underdog
2026 overall: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road underdog: 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 4-1 ATS (5 games) · 2-3 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 17-13 ATS (30 games) · 17-12-1 O/U (30 games)
New Mexico State as home favorite
2026 overall: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home favorite: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 0-2 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 10-6 ATS (16 games) · 10-5 O/U (15 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalNew Mexico State · 7 of 9
343.5
Yards / game
414.5
1.41
Points / drive
1.71
3.0
TDs / game
3.0
38.1
3rd-down %
50.0
72.7
RZ TD %
60.0
-1.3
Turnover margin
-0.8
0.8
Sacks / game
1.5
3.3
TFL / game
4.8
9.0
Havoc / game
9.8
49.6 / 50.4
Pass / Rush split
52.3 / 47.7
2026 · Situational matchup
When Western Kentucky has the ball
Western Kentucky's early-down offense ranks 91st of 138. New Mexico State's early-down defense ranks 76th of 138.
Western Kentucky's passing-down offense ranks 88th of 138. New Mexico State's passing-down defense ranks 79th of 138.
Western Kentucky's third-down offense ranks 103rd of 138. New Mexico State's third-down defense ranks 86th of 138.
Western Kentucky's red-zone offense ranks 14th of 138. New Mexico State's red-zone defense ranks 65th of 138.
When New Mexico State has the ball
New Mexico State's early-down offense ranks 135th of 138. Western Kentucky's early-down defense ranks 129th of 138.
New Mexico State's passing-down offense ranks 33rd of 138. Western Kentucky's passing-down defense ranks 119th of 138.
New Mexico State's third-down offense ranks 1st of 138. Western Kentucky's third-down defense ranks 77th of 138.
New Mexico State's red-zone offense ranks 93rd of 138. Western Kentucky's red-zone defense ranks 119th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(-0.051 last 3 vs -0.070 season)
▲Defense form0.026 last 3 vs 0.086 season (-0.060)
Offense formabout the same(-0.046 last 3 vs -0.024 season)
Defense formabout the same(-0.001 last 3 vs 0.044 season)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingRodney Tisdale Jr. — 543 yd, 4 TD
RushingAjay Allen — 185 yd, 2 TD
ReceivingJonathan Stafford Jr. — 158 yd, 0 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingTrey Hedden — 887 yd, 5 TD
RushingJames Jones — 355 yd, 2 TD
ReceivingTK King — 265 yd, 2 TD