Fourth Down Data
Virginia3-1 · ACC@Florida State2-2 · ACC
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Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET· Doak Campbell Stadium· Virginia -2.5 · O/U 51.5
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 620 mi / 0 miForecast: 85°F · wind 6 mph · Rain, Partially cloudy
Market context
Virginia -2.5 · O/U 51.5
opened Virginia -3, now Virginia -2.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Virginia as road favorite
2026 overall: 3-1 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road favorite: none in this role
Last season (2025): 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 0-2 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
Florida State as home underdog
2026 overall: 1-2-1 ATS (4 games) · 1-3 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home underdog: 0-0-1 ATS (1 game) · 0-1 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 0-1-1 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 5-8-1 ATS (14 games) · 4-9-1 O/U (14 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalVirginia · 7 of 9
447.3
Yards / game
407.8
3.29
Points / drive
3.10
5.3
TDs / game
4.0
37.7
3rd-down %
40.8
77.8
RZ TD %
76.5
1.3
Turnover margin
-0.3
2.0
Sacks / game
1.8
5.8
TFL / game
6.0
14.3
Havoc / game
12.0
39.3 / 60.7
Pass / Rush split
40.2 / 59.8
2026 · Situational matchup
When Virginia has the ball
Virginia's early-down offense ranks 34th of 138. Florida State's early-down defense ranks 74th of 138.
Virginia's passing-down offense ranks 74th of 138. Florida State's passing-down defense ranks 110th of 138.
Virginia's third-down offense ranks 85th of 138. Florida State's third-down defense ranks 138th of 138.
Virginia's red-zone offense ranks 21st of 138. Florida State's red-zone defense ranks 49th of 138.
When Florida State has the ball
Florida State's early-down offense ranks 66th of 138. Virginia's early-down defense ranks 37th of 138.
Florida State's passing-down offense ranks 7th of 138. Virginia's passing-down defense ranks 33rd of 138.
Florida State's third-down offense ranks 9th of 138. Virginia's third-down defense ranks 50th of 138.
Florida State's red-zone offense ranks 41st of 138. Virginia's red-zone defense ranks 68th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(0.161 last 3 vs 0.143 season)
▼Defense form-0.065 last 3 vs -0.128 season (+0.063)
Offense formabout the same(0.132 last 3 vs 0.144 season)
Defense formabout the same(0.227 last 3 vs 0.181 season)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingBeau Pribula — 793 yd, 11 TD
RushingJekail Middlebrook — 177 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingKameron Courtney — 166 yd, 2 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingAshton Daniels — 928 yd, 6 TD
RushingOusmane Kromah — 397 yd, 5 TD
ReceivingDuce Robinson — 262 yd, 2 TD