Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET· California Memorial Stadium· Virginia Tech -12.5 · O/U 51.5
Rest 8d / 7dTravel 2,273 mi / 0 miForecast: 69°F · wind 10 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Virginia Tech -12.5 · O/U 51.5
total opened 49.5, now 51.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Virginia Tech as road favorite
2026 overall: 3-2 ATS (5 games) · 4-1 O/U (5 games)
2026 as road favorite: 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): none in this role
Since 2020: 7-9 ATS (16 games) · 11-5 O/U (16 games)
California as home underdog
2026 overall: 1-4 ATS (5 games) · 2-3 O/U (5 games)
2026 as home underdog: 0-2 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 2-1-1 O/U (4 games)
Since 2020: 10-6 ATS (16 games) · 9-6-1 O/U (16 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalVirginia Tech · 8 of 9
469.8
Yards / game
396.0
3.15
Points / drive
1.86
4.8
TDs / game
3.0
43.4
3rd-down %
34.7
63.6
RZ TD %
62.5
-1.0
Turnover margin
0.2
3.6
Sacks / game
2.0
10.2
TFL / game
4.0
18.6
Havoc / game
11.0
49.9 / 50.1
Pass / Rush split
59.5 / 40.5
2026 · Situational matchup
When Virginia Tech has the ball
Virginia Tech's early-down offense ranks 55th of 138. California's early-down defense ranks 41st of 138.
Virginia Tech's passing-down offense ranks 27th of 138. California's passing-down defense ranks 41st of 138.
Virginia Tech's third-down offense ranks 71st of 138. California's third-down defense ranks 125th of 138.
Virginia Tech's red-zone offense ranks 81st of 138. California's red-zone defense ranks 23rd of 138.
When California has the ball
California's early-down offense ranks 80th of 138. Virginia Tech's early-down defense ranks 72nd of 138.
California's passing-down offense ranks 105th of 138. Virginia Tech's passing-down defense ranks 60th of 138.
California's third-down offense ranks 73rd of 138. Virginia Tech's third-down defense ranks 95th of 138.
California's red-zone offense ranks 66th of 138. Virginia Tech's red-zone defense ranks 120th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▼Offense form-0.002 last 3 vs 0.090 season (-0.092)
▼Defense form0.028 last 3 vs -0.226 season (+0.254)
Offense formabout the same(0.017 last 3 vs -0.021 season)
▲Defense form-0.268 last 3 vs -0.119 season (-0.149)
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingEthan Grunkemeyer — 1446 yd, 11 TD
RushingJeffrey Overton, Jr. — 455 yd, 4 TD
ReceivingLuke Reynolds — 373 yd, 4 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele — 1180 yd, 8 TD
RushingAdam Mohammed — 336 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingIan Strong — 299 yd, 1 TD
2026 · Collision map
Where each offense meets the other defense — FBS rank first, season value after.
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Early downs
Virginia Tech offense
55thof 1380.037228 plays
vs
California defense · allowed
41stof 138-0.084Virginia Tech defense · allowed
72ndof 138-0.030vs
California offense
80thof 138-0.008247 plays
Passing downs
Virginia Tech offense
27thof 1380.215120 plays
vs
California defense · allowed
41stof 138-0.109130 plays
Virginia Tech defense · allowed
60thof 138-0.051126 plays
vs
California offense
105thof 138-0.120134 plays
Third down
Virginia Tech offense
71stof 1380.08176 plays
vs
California defense · allowed
125thof 1380.27975 plays
Virginia Tech defense · allowed
95thof 1380.10968 plays
vs
California offense
73rdof 1380.07674 plays
Red zone
Virginia Tech offense
81stof 138-0.01563 plays
vs
California defense · allowed
23rdof 138-0.30449 plays · small sample
Virginia Tech defense · allowed
120thof 1380.28430 plays · small sample
vs
California offense
66thof 1380.03131 plays · small sample
Field advancement
Virginia Tech offense
30thof 13856.6%vs
California defense · allowed
65thof 13841.6%Virginia Tech defense · allowed
9thof 13828.9%vs
California offense
97thof 13844.5%Away
Home
Virginia Tech Offense vs California DefenseVirginia Tech · 6 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
0.24#20
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#690.01
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
0.049#59
297 plays
EPA/Play
#840.005
allowed · 284 plays
0.121#38
152 plays
EPA/Pass
#19-0.233
allowed · 129 plays
-0.026#96
145 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#1310.203
allowed · 155 plays
49.2%#42
297 plays
Success Rate
#1639.4%
allowed · 284 plays
48.0%#51
Pass Success Rate
#2036.7%
allowed
50.3%#45
Rush Success Rate
#1939.8%
allowed
56.6%#30
Available Yards %
#6541.6%
allowed
65.6#11
Net Field Position
#12667.7
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
0.037#55
228 plays
Early Downs EPA/Play
#41-0.084
allowed
6.6#49
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#817.1
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Virginia Tech Defense vs California OffenseVirginia Tech · 9 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
0.07#47
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#99-0.13
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
-0.056#57
allowed · 217 plays
EPA/Play
#99-0.052
327 plays
0.082#101
allowed · 102 plays
EPA/Pass
#80-0.031
196 plays
-0.178#21
allowed · 115 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#112-0.085
131 plays
40.6%#25
allowed · 217 plays
Success Rate
#13141.0%
327 plays
42.7%#70
allowed
Pass Success Rate
#11838.8%
33.5%#1
allowed
Rush Success Rate
#11244.3%
28.9%#9
allowed
Available Yards %
#9744.5%
71.2#78
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
Net Field Position
#7771.0
-0.030#72
allowed
Early Downs EPA/Play
#80-0.008
247 plays
9.1#2
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#1177.7
2026 · Situational EPAVirginia Tech · 4 of 6
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
0.044
310 plays
Non-garbage · Off
-0.064
324 plays
-0.066
232 plays
Non-garbage · Def (allowed)
0.028
305 plays
-0.015
63 plays
Red Zone · Off
0.031
31 plays · small sample
0.284
30 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Def (allowed)
-0.304
49 plays · small sample
0.081
76 plays
3rd Down · Off
0.076
74 plays
0.108
68 plays
3rd Down · Def (allowed)
0.279
75 plays