Sat, Oct 24, 7:30 PM ET· Bobcat Stadium· Texas State -13.5 · O/U 61
Rest 15d / 9dTravel 1,127 mi / 0 miForecast: 77°F · wind 10 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Texas State -13.5 · O/U 61
opened Texas State -12, now Texas State -13.5 · total opened 58.5, now 61
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Utah State as road underdog
2026 overall: 3-3 ATS (6 games) · 1-5 O/U (6 games)
2026 as road underdog: 2-1 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 4-1 ATS (5 games) · 2-3 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 15-12 ATS (27 games) · 13-14 O/U (27 games)
Texas State as home favorite
2026 overall: 3-3 ATS (6 games) · 5-1 O/U (6 games)
2026 as home favorite: 3-1 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
Last season (2025): 3-3 ATS (6 games) · 3-3 O/U (6 games)
Since 2020: 12-14 ATS (26 games) · 13-13 O/U (26 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalTexas State · 8 of 9
310.0
Yards / game
562.3
1.30
Points / drive
3.40
1.8
TDs / game
5.2
37.0
3rd-down %
55.4
46.7
RZ TD %
61.3
-1.0
Turnover margin
-0.8
1.5
Sacks / game
1.0
4.7
TFL / game
5.5
11.0
Havoc / game
11.7
48.5 / 51.5
Pass / Rush split
35.8 / 64.2
2026 · Situational matchup
When Utah State has the ball
Utah State's early-down offense ranks 137th of 138. Texas State's early-down defense ranks 126th of 138.
Utah State's passing-down offense ranks 107th of 138. Texas State's passing-down defense ranks 103rd of 138.
Utah State's third-down offense ranks 44th of 138. Texas State's third-down defense ranks 126th of 138.
Utah State's red-zone offense ranks 133rd of 138. Texas State's red-zone defense ranks 90th of 138.
When Texas State has the ball
Texas State's early-down offense ranks 15th of 138. Utah State's early-down defense ranks 23rd of 138.
Texas State's passing-down offense ranks 1st of 138. Utah State's passing-down defense ranks 38th of 138.
Texas State's third-down offense ranks 7th of 138. Utah State's third-down defense ranks 56th of 138.
Texas State's red-zone offense ranks 77th of 138. Utah State's red-zone defense ranks 51st of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▲Offense form-0.100 last 3 vs -0.165 season (+0.065)
▲Defense form-0.120 last 3 vs -0.059 season (-0.061)
▲Offense form0.341 last 3 vs 0.249 season (+0.092)
▲Defense form0.079 last 3 vs 0.146 season (-0.067)
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingGrady Brosterhous — 914 yd, 7 TD
RushingJaven Jacobs — 393 yd, 2 TD
ReceivingEli Wood — 472 yd, 5 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingBrad Jackson — 1439 yd, 14 TD
RushingTorrance Burgess Jr. — 838 yd, 5 TD
ReceivingChris Dawn, Jr. — 348 yd, 4 TD
2026 · Collision map
Where each offense meets the other defense — FBS rank first, season value after.
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Early downs
Utah State offense
137thof 138-0.240259 plays
vs
Texas State defense · allowed
126thof 1380.111Utah State defense · allowed
23rdof 138-0.118vs
Texas State offense
15thof 1380.153304 plays
Passing downs
Utah State offense
107thof 138-0.095144 plays
vs
Texas State defense · allowed
103rdof 1380.114164 plays
Utah State defense · allowed
38thof 138-0.103153 plays
vs
Texas State offense
1stof 1380.458125 plays
Third down
Utah State offense
44thof 1380.16581 plays
vs
Texas State defense · allowed
126thof 1380.29190 plays
Utah State defense · allowed
56thof 138-0.02394 plays
vs
Texas State offense
7thof 1380.47084 plays
Red zone
Utah State offense
133rdof 138-0.57041 plays · small sample
vs
Texas State defense · allowed
90thof 1380.04265 plays
Utah State defense · allowed
51stof 138-0.12944 plays · small sample
vs
Texas State offense
77thof 138-0.01683 plays
Field advancement
Utah State offense
125thof 13837.7%vs
Texas State defense · allowed
112thof 13849.7%Utah State defense · allowed
62ndof 13842.5%vs
Texas State offense
6thof 13862.8%Away
Home
Utah State Offense vs Texas State DefenseTexas State · 7 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.42#135
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#121-0.22
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
-0.165#131
341 plays
EPA/Play
#1310.144
allowed · 326 plays
-0.276#133
165 plays
EPA/Pass
#1330.243
allowed · 191 plays
-0.061#109
176 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#760.005
allowed · 135 plays
40.2%#134
341 plays
Success Rate
#12449.7%
allowed · 326 plays
33.3%#136
Pass Success Rate
#11146.4%
allowed
46.6%#95
Rush Success Rate
#12751.8%
allowed
37.7%#125
Available Yards %
#11249.7%
allowed
68.7#34
Net Field Position
#10969.4
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
-0.240#137
259 plays
Early Downs EPA/Play
#1260.111
allowed
7.7#118
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#237.8
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Utah State Defense vs Texas State OffenseTexas State · 9 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.02#76
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#240.22
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
-0.078#38
allowed · 389 plays
EPA/Play
#110.202
380 plays
-0.170#26
allowed · 206 plays
EPA/Pass
#130.249
151 plays
0.026#86
allowed · 183 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#130.171
229 plays
42.2%#35
allowed · 389 plays
Success Rate
#1352.1%
380 plays
42.4%#67
allowed
Pass Success Rate
#2052.3%
40.7%#16
allowed
Rush Success Rate
#2552.0%
42.5%#62
allowed
Available Yards %
#662.8%
72.7#40
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
Net Field Position
#9871.9
-0.118#23
allowed
Early Downs EPA/Play
#150.153
304 plays
6.5#119
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#25.3
2026 · Situational EPAEven · 3-3-0
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
-0.212
345 plays
Non-garbage · Off
0.207
383 plays
-0.085
398 plays
Non-garbage · Def (allowed)
0.136
350 plays
-0.570
41 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Off
-0.016
83 plays
-0.129
44 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Def (allowed)
0.042
65 plays
0.165
81 plays
3rd Down · Off
0.470
84 plays
-0.022
94 plays
3rd Down · Def (allowed)
0.291
90 plays