Fourth Down Data
Texas State2-2 · Pac-12@San Diego State1-3 · Pac-12
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Sat, Oct 3, 10:30 PM ET· Snapdragon Stadium· Texas State -4.5 · O/U 59.5
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 1,149 mi / 0 miForecast: 83°F · wind 4 mph · Clear
Market context
Texas State -4.5 · O/U 59.5
opened Texas State -3.5, now Texas State -4.5 · total opened 58.5, now 59.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Texas State as road favorite
2026 overall: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road favorite: none in this role
Last season (2025): 0-3 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
Since 2020: 6-7 ATS (13 games) · 8-5 O/U (13 games)
San Diego State as home underdog
2026 overall: 0-4 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home underdog: none in this role
Last season (2025): 2-0 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 8-5 ATS (13 games) · 5-8 O/U (13 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalTexas State · 7 of 9
523.3
Yards / game
320.0
3.38
Points / drive
1.48
4.8
TDs / game
2.8
60.0
3rd-down %
32.7
61.1
RZ TD %
71.4
-0.5
Turnover margin
-0.8
1.3
Sacks / game
1.5
5.8
TFL / game
3.5
13.8
Havoc / game
8.8
35.9 / 64.1
Pass / Rush split
41.3 / 58.7
2026 · Situational matchup
When Texas State has the ball
Texas State's early-down offense ranks 20th of 138. San Diego State's early-down defense ranks 127th of 138.
Texas State's passing-down offense ranks 2nd of 138. San Diego State's passing-down defense ranks 85th of 138.
Texas State's third-down offense ranks 10th of 138. San Diego State's third-down defense ranks 24th of 138.
Texas State's red-zone offense ranks 71st of 138. San Diego State's red-zone defense ranks 94th of 138.
When San Diego State has the ball
San Diego State's early-down offense ranks 137th of 138. Texas State's early-down defense ranks 106th of 138.
San Diego State's passing-down offense ranks 47th of 138. Texas State's passing-down defense ranks 114th of 138.
San Diego State's third-down offense ranks 77th of 138. Texas State's third-down defense ranks 131st of 138.
San Diego State's red-zone offense ranks 65th of 138. Texas State's red-zone defense ranks 79th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▲Offense form0.320 last 3 vs 0.252 season (+0.068)
Defense formabout the same(0.090 last 3 vs 0.127 season)
▼Offense form-0.309 last 3 vs -0.189 season (-0.119)
▼Defense form0.060 last 3 vs 0.005 season (+0.055)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingBrad Jackson — 854 yd, 10 TD
RushingTorrance Burgess Jr. — 537 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingChris Dawn, Jr. — 247 yd, 4 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingJayden Denegal — 597 yd, 5 TD
RushingJavion Kinnard — 312 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingNathan Acevedo — 130 yd, 2 TD