Fourth Down Data
Penn State3-1 · Big Ten@Northwestern2-1 · Big Ten
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Fri, Oct 2, 8:00 PM ET· Ryan Field· Penn State -2.5 · O/U 45.5
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 6d / 7dTravel 517 mi / 0 miForecast: 58°F · wind 5 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Penn State -2.5 · O/U 45.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Penn State as road favorite
2026 overall: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 1-2-1 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road favorite: 0-1 ATS (1 game) · 0-1 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 1-2 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
Since 2020: 15-8 ATS (23 games) · 13-10 O/U (23 games)
Northwestern as home underdog
2026 overall: 3-0 ATS (3 games) · 2-0-1 O/U (3 games)
2026 as home underdog: none in this role
Last season (2025): 2-0 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 13-8 ATS (21 games) · 10-11 O/U (21 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalNorthwestern · 5 of 9
427.3
Yards / game
415.0
2.76
Points / drive
3.03
4.3
TDs / game
4.0
41.1
3rd-down %
41.2
50.0
RZ TD %
71.4
1.8
Turnover margin
1.3
1.5
Sacks / game
1.7
4.8
TFL / game
3.7
12.5
Havoc / game
13.0
41.1 / 58.9
Pass / Rush split
41.1 / 58.9
2026 · Situational matchup
When Penn State has the ball
Penn State's early-down offense ranks 85th of 138. Northwestern's early-down defense ranks 115th of 138.
Penn State's passing-down offense ranks 100th of 138. Northwestern's passing-down defense ranks 42nd of 138.
Penn State's third-down offense ranks 71st of 138. Northwestern's third-down defense ranks 58th of 138.
Penn State's red-zone offense ranks 114th of 138. Northwestern's red-zone defense ranks 11th of 138.
When Northwestern has the ball
Northwestern's early-down offense ranks 30th of 138. Penn State's early-down defense ranks 14th of 138.
Northwestern's passing-down offense ranks 11th of 138. Penn State's passing-down defense ranks 27th of 138.
Northwestern's third-down offense ranks 48th of 138. Penn State's third-down defense ranks 2nd of 138.
Northwestern's red-zone offense ranks 12th of 138. Penn State's red-zone defense ranks 114th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▼Offense form-0.015 last 3 vs 0.047 season (-0.062)
Defense formabout the same(-0.276 last 3 vs -0.266 season)
Season to date · 3 games
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingRocco Becht — 865 yd, 9 TD
RushingJames Peoples — 199 yd, 2 TD
ReceivingKoby Howard — 344 yd, 2 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingAidan Chiles — 807 yd, 6 TD
RushingGavin Sawchuk — 143 yd, 0 TD
ReceivingGriffin Wilde — 245 yd, 2 TD