Fourth Down Data
Penn State3-3 · Big Ten@Michigan3-2 · Big Ten
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Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET· Michigan Stadium· Michigan -6.5 · O/U 43.5
Rest 7d / 14dTravel 321 mi / 0 miForecast: 48°F · wind 16 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Michigan -6.5 · O/U 43.5
opened Michigan -6, now Michigan -6.5 · total opened 44, now 43.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Penn State as road underdog
2026 overall: 2-4 ATS (6 games) · 2-3-1 O/U (6 games)
2026 as road underdog: none in this role
Last season (2025): 2-1 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
Since 2020: 6-6 ATS (12 games) · 6-6 O/U (12 games)
Michigan as home favorite
2026 overall: 2-3 ATS (5 games) · 1-4 O/U (5 games)
2026 as home favorite: 1-2 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 2-3 ATS (5 games) · 2-3 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 19-20-1 ATS (40 games) · 14-25 O/U (39 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalMichigan · 5 of 9
392.8
Yards / game
315.8
2.33
Points / drive
1.92
3.5
TDs / game
2.6
36.6
3rd-down %
40.7
53.8
RZ TD %
61.5
0.8
Turnover margin
-0.8
1.3
Sacks / game
2.4
4.5
TFL / game
6.8
11.2
Havoc / game
11.8
46.5 / 53.5
Pass / Rush split
39.9 / 60.1
2026 · Situational matchup
When Penn State has the ball
Penn State's early-down offense ranks 86th of 138. Michigan's early-down defense ranks 13th of 138.
Penn State's passing-down offense ranks 114th of 138. Michigan's passing-down defense ranks 3rd of 138.
Penn State's third-down offense ranks 92nd of 138. Michigan's third-down defense ranks 26th of 138.
Penn State's red-zone offense ranks 97th of 138. Michigan's red-zone defense ranks 23rd of 138.
When Michigan has the ball
Michigan's early-down offense ranks 97th of 138. Penn State's early-down defense ranks 61st of 138.
Michigan's passing-down offense ranks 78th of 138. Penn State's passing-down defense ranks 59th of 138.
Michigan's third-down offense ranks 98th of 138. Penn State's third-down defense ranks 8th of 138.
Michigan's red-zone offense ranks 19th of 138. Penn State's red-zone defense ranks 130th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▼Offense form-0.153 last 3 vs 0.010 season (-0.163)
▼Defense form0.098 last 3 vs -0.096 season (+0.193)
▲Offense form-0.025 last 3 vs -0.079 season (+0.054)
Defense formabout the same(-0.256 last 3 vs -0.209 season)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingRocco Becht — 1397 yd, 11 TD
RushingJames Peoples — 232 yd, 2 TD
ReceivingChase Sowell — 359 yd, 2 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingBryce Underwood — 881 yd, 5 TD
RushingJordan Marshall — 244 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingJJ Buchanan — 446 yd, 4 TD