Fourth Down Data
#3Notre Dame4-0 · FBS Independents@North Carolina2-1 · ACC
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Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM ET· Kenan Stadium· Notre Dame -21 · O/U 47.5
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 7d / 14dTravel 556 mi / 0 miForecast: 77°F · wind 9 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Notre Dame -21 · O/U 47.5
opened Notre Dame -21.5, now Notre Dame -21
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Notre Dame as road favorite
2026 overall: 3-1 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road favorite: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 2-3 ATS (5 games) · 3-2 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 19-8 ATS (27 games) · 18-9 O/U (27 games)
North Carolina as home underdog
2026 overall: 1-2 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
2026 as home underdog: none in this role
Last season (2025): 1-2-1 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
Since 2020: 2-8-1 ATS (11 games) · 6-5 O/U (11 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalNotre Dame · 8 of 9
416.8
Yards / game
366.0
3.90
Points / drive
2.18
4.8
TDs / game
2.7
41.5
3rd-down %
38.2
73.7
RZ TD %
54.5
2.0
Turnover margin
0.3
3.3
Sacks / game
3.3
7.3
TFL / game
5.3
16.0
Havoc / game
12.7
44.6 / 55.4
Pass / Rush split
46.9 / 53.1
2026 · Situational matchup
When Notre Dame has the ball
Notre Dame's early-down offense ranks 5th of 138. North Carolina's early-down defense ranks 50th of 138.
Notre Dame's passing-down offense ranks 103rd of 138. North Carolina's passing-down defense ranks 16th of 138.
Notre Dame's third-down offense ranks 130th of 138. North Carolina's third-down defense ranks 52nd of 138.
Notre Dame's red-zone offense ranks 73rd of 138. North Carolina's red-zone defense ranks 3rd of 138.
When North Carolina has the ball
North Carolina's early-down offense ranks 90th of 138. Notre Dame's early-down defense ranks 3rd of 138.
North Carolina's passing-down offense ranks 50th of 138. Notre Dame's passing-down defense ranks 7th of 138.
North Carolina's third-down offense ranks 104th of 138. Notre Dame's third-down defense ranks 11th of 138.
North Carolina's red-zone offense ranks 85th of 138. Notre Dame's red-zone defense ranks 8th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(0.259 last 3 vs 0.254 season)
▲Defense form-0.507 last 3 vs -0.438 season (-0.069)
Season to date · 3 games
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingCJ Carr — 963 yd, 9 TD
RushingAneyas Williams — 224 yd, 4 TD
ReceivingMicah Gilbert — 334 yd, 2 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingBilly Edwards Jr. — 611 yd, 3 TD
RushingBenjamin Hall — 215 yd, 0 TD
ReceivingJelani Thurman — 183 yd, 1 TD