Fourth Down Data
North Dakota State6-1 · Mountain West@New Mexico5-1 · Mountain West
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Sat, Oct 24, 10:00 PM ET· Dreamstyle Stadium· Elevation 5,100 ft· New Mexico -4.5 · O/U 41.5
Rest — / 7dTravel — / 0 miForecast: 57°F · wind 8 mph · Rain, Partially cloudy
Market context
New Mexico -4.5 · O/U 41.5
total opened 42.5, now 41.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
North Dakota State as road underdog
2026 overall: 3-3-1 ATS (7 games) · 2-5 O/U (7 games)
2026 as road underdog: none in this role
Last season (2025): none in this role
Since 2020: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 0-1 O/U (1 game)
New Mexico as home favorite
2026 overall: 5-1 ATS (6 games) · 3-3 O/U (6 games)
2026 as home favorite: 3-0 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 2-3 ATS (5 games) · 1-4 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 8-7 ATS (15 games) · 8-7 O/U (15 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalNew Mexico · 9 of 9
362.0
Yards / game
378.0
2.45
Points / drive
2.88
3.0
TDs / game
4.8
41.3
3rd-down %
41.6
63.6
RZ TD %
74.1
1.1
Turnover margin
2.8
1.6
Sacks / game
3.2
4.6
TFL / game
9.0
10.9
Havoc / game
18.2
37.1 / 62.9
Pass / Rush split
29.4 / 70.6
2026 · Situational matchup
When North Dakota State has the ball
North Dakota State's early-down offense ranks 93rd of 138. New Mexico's early-down defense ranks 1st of 138.
North Dakota State's passing-down offense ranks 62nd of 138. New Mexico's passing-down defense ranks 8th of 138.
North Dakota State's third-down offense ranks 77th of 138. New Mexico's third-down defense ranks 62nd of 138.
North Dakota State's red-zone offense ranks 121st of 138. New Mexico's red-zone defense ranks 10th of 138.
When New Mexico has the ball
New Mexico's early-down offense ranks 123rd of 138. North Dakota State's early-down defense ranks 2nd of 138.
New Mexico's passing-down offense ranks 101st of 138. North Dakota State's passing-down defense ranks 1st of 138.
New Mexico's third-down offense ranks 31st of 138. North Dakota State's third-down defense ranks 16th of 138.
New Mexico's red-zone offense ranks 34th of 138. North Dakota State's red-zone defense ranks 18th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▼Offense form-0.146 last 3 vs -0.014 season (-0.133)
Defense formabout the same(-0.336 last 3 vs -0.328 season)
▲Offense form0.133 last 3 vs 0.060 season (+0.073)
Defense formabout the same(-0.372 last 3 vs -0.399 season)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingNathan Hayes — 1272 yd, 10 TD
RushingMyles Mitchell — 354 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingJackson Williams — 432 yd, 1 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingToa Fa'avae — 698 yd, 5 TD
RushingScottre Humphrey — 422 yd, 8 TD
ReceivingBailen George — 240 yd, 3 TD