Fourth Down Data
North Carolina3-2 · ACC@Duke4-1 · ACC
Share →
Sat, Oct 17, 3:30 PM ET· Wallace Wade Stadium· Duke -3 · O/U 47.5
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 9 mi / 0 miForecast: 60°F · wind 15 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Duke -3 · O/U 47.5
opened Duke -4, now Duke -3 · total opened 46.5, now 47.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
North Carolina as road underdog
2026 overall: 3-2 ATS (5 games) · 2-3 O/U (5 games)
2026 as road underdog: 2-1 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 2-3 ATS (5 games) · 2-3 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 10-8 ATS (18 games) · 6-12 O/U (18 games)
Duke as home favorite
2026 overall: 3-1 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home favorite: 2-0 ATS (2 games) · 0-2 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 2-4 ATS (6 games) · 4-2 O/U (6 games)
Since 2020: 14-10 ATS (24 games) · 11-13 O/U (24 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalDuke · 7 of 9
330.6
Yards / game
456.6
2.06
Points / drive
2.90
2.8
TDs / game
4.4
38.2
3rd-down %
47.1
68.8
RZ TD %
65.2
-0.2
Turnover margin
0.2
2.4
Sacks / game
2.2
4.4
TFL / game
5.2
11.6
Havoc / game
12.0
49.1 / 50.9
Pass / Rush split
42.5 / 57.5
2026 · Situational matchup
When North Carolina has the ball
North Carolina's early-down offense ranks 85th of 138. Duke's early-down defense ranks 92nd of 138.
North Carolina's passing-down offense ranks 49th of 138. Duke's passing-down defense ranks 11th of 138.
North Carolina's third-down offense ranks 100th of 138. Duke's third-down defense ranks 15th of 138.
North Carolina's red-zone offense ranks 21st of 138. Duke's red-zone defense ranks 91st of 138.
When Duke has the ball
Duke's early-down offense ranks 27th of 138. North Carolina's early-down defense ranks 77th of 138.
Duke's passing-down offense ranks 17th of 138. North Carolina's passing-down defense ranks 40th of 138.
Duke's third-down offense ranks 15th of 138. North Carolina's third-down defense ranks 95th of 138.
Duke's red-zone offense ranks 60th of 138. North Carolina's red-zone defense ranks 25th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▼Offense form-0.046 last 3 vs 0.024 season (-0.070)
▼Defense form0.069 last 3 vs -0.044 season (+0.113)
Offense formabout the same(0.212 last 3 vs 0.164 season)
Defense formabout the same(-0.063 last 3 vs -0.103 season)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingBilly Edwards Jr. — 1069 yd, 8 TD
RushingBenjamin Hall — 276 yd, 0 TD
ReceivingJordan Shipp — 366 yd, 0 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingWalker Eget — 980 yd, 7 TD
RushingNate Sheppard — 743 yd, 8 TD
ReceivingJeremiah Hasley — 234 yd, 0 TD