Fourth Down Data
#17Mississippi State4-1 · SEC@#10LSU4-2 · SEC
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Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET· Tiger Stadium· LSU -11.5 · O/U 60
Rest 14d / 7dTravel 253 mi / 0 miForecast: 75°F · wind 17 mph · Clear
Market context
LSU -11.5 · O/U 60
opened LSU -12, now LSU -11.5 · total opened 59.5, now 60
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Mississippi State as road underdog
2026 overall: 4-1 ATS (5 games) · 3-2 O/U (5 games)
2026 as road underdog: 2-0 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
Since 2020: 16-9 ATS (25 games) · 11-14 O/U (25 games)
LSU as home favorite
2026 overall: 2-4 ATS (6 games) · 4-2 O/U (6 games)
2026 as home favorite: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
Last season (2025): 2-4 ATS (6 games) · 1-5 O/U (6 games)
Since 2020: 16-18 ATS (34 games) · 16-18 O/U (34 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalLSU · 8 of 9
487.0
Yards / game
524.8
3.29
Points / drive
3.25
5.0
TDs / game
5.3
47.6
3rd-down %
52.2
66.7
RZ TD %
69.4
-0.6
Turnover margin
-0.3
2.6
Sacks / game
3.8
5.2
TFL / game
7.2
14.4
Havoc / game
16.5
47.5 / 52.5
Pass / Rush split
44.2 / 55.8
2026 · Situational matchup
When Mississippi State has the ball
Mississippi State's early-down offense ranks 38th of 138. LSU's early-down defense ranks 6th of 138.
Mississippi State's passing-down offense ranks 38th of 138. LSU's passing-down defense ranks 8th of 138.
Mississippi State's third-down offense ranks 59th of 138. LSU's third-down defense ranks 6th of 138.
Mississippi State's red-zone offense ranks 81st of 138. LSU's red-zone defense ranks 41st of 138.
When LSU has the ball
LSU's early-down offense ranks 73rd of 138. Mississippi State's early-down defense ranks 26th of 138.
LSU's passing-down offense ranks 57th of 138. Mississippi State's passing-down defense ranks 121st of 138.
LSU's third-down offense ranks 65th of 138. Mississippi State's third-down defense ranks 121st of 138.
LSU's red-zone offense ranks 90th of 138. Mississippi State's red-zone defense ranks 79th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▼Offense form0.003 last 3 vs 0.108 season (-0.105)
▼Defense form0.117 last 3 vs -0.015 season (+0.132)
▲Offense form0.214 last 3 vs 0.081 season (+0.133)
▼Defense form-0.362 last 3 vs -0.445 season (+0.083)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingKamario Taylor — 1450 yd, 17 TD
RushingFluff Bothwell — 403 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingAnthony Evans III — 574 yd, 5 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingSam Leavitt — 1496 yd, 10 TD
RushingDilin Jones — 482 yd, 5 TD
ReceivingWinston Watkins, Jr. — 416 yd, 2 TD