Fourth Down Data
#24Kentucky3-1 · SEC@South Carolina2-2 · SEC
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Sat, Oct 3, 4:15 PM ET· Williams-Brice Stadium· South Carolina -3 · O/U 53.5
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 341 mi / 0 miForecast: 82°F · wind 6 mph · Rain, Partially cloudy
Market context
South Carolina -3 · O/U 53.5
total opened 54, now 53.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Kentucky as road underdog
2026 overall: 2-1 ATS (3 games) · 3-0 O/U (3 games)
2026 as road underdog: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 1-4 ATS (5 games) · 3-2 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 12-8 ATS (20 games) · 9-11 O/U (20 games)
South Carolina as home favorite
2026 overall: 1-3 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home favorite: 1-2 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 3-3 ATS (6 games) · 2-4 O/U (6 games)
Since 2020: 14-11 ATS (25 games) · 13-11 O/U (24 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalEven · 4-4-1
422.5
Yards / game
499.3
2.95
Points / drive
2.53
4.3
TDs / game
4.3
23.1
3rd-down %
42.6
76.5
RZ TD %
60.0
0.8
Turnover margin
-1.0
2.3
Sacks / game
2.5
4.5
TFL / game
5.3
14.3
Havoc / game
10.8
41.7 / 58.3
Pass / Rush split
45.4 / 54.6
2026 · Situational matchup
When Kentucky has the ball
Kentucky's early-down offense ranks 4th of 138. South Carolina's early-down defense ranks 116th of 138.
Kentucky's passing-down offense ranks 63rd of 138. South Carolina's passing-down defense ranks 123rd of 138.
Kentucky's third-down offense ranks 138th of 138. South Carolina's third-down defense ranks 109th of 138.
Kentucky's red-zone offense ranks 17th of 138. South Carolina's red-zone defense ranks 54th of 138.
When South Carolina has the ball
South Carolina's early-down offense ranks 110th of 138. Kentucky's early-down defense ranks 87th of 138.
South Carolina's passing-down offense ranks 45th of 138. Kentucky's passing-down defense ranks 128th of 138.
South Carolina's third-down offense ranks 33rd of 138. Kentucky's third-down defense ranks 85th of 138.
South Carolina's red-zone offense ranks 55th of 138. Kentucky's red-zone defense ranks 105th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▼Offense form0.026 last 3 vs 0.078 season (-0.052)
Defense formabout the same(0.003 last 3 vs 0.006 season)
▼Offense form-0.101 last 3 vs 0.041 season (-0.142)
▼Defense form0.202 last 3 vs 0.068 season (+0.133)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingKenny Minchey — 876 yd, 8 TD
RushingJason Patterson — 326 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingKenny Darby — 226 yd, 2 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingLaNorris Sellers — 833 yd, 6 TD
RushingMatt Fuller — 384 yd, 4 TD
ReceivingNyck Harbor — 169 yd, 1 TD