Fourth Down Data
Arkansas State2-2 · Sun Belt@Louisiana3-1 · Sun Belt
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Sat, Oct 3, 8:00 PM ET· Cajun Field· Louisiana -6.5 · O/U 47.5
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 397 mi / 0 miForecast: 76°F · wind 7 mph · Rain, Partially cloudy
Market context
Louisiana -6.5 · O/U 47.5
total opened 47, now 47.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Arkansas State as road underdog
2026 overall: 1-3 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road underdog: 0-2 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 3-2 ATS (5 games) · 2-3 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 20-15 ATS (35 games) · 15-20 O/U (35 games)
Louisiana as home favorite
2026 overall: 3-0-1 ATS (4 games) · 1-3 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home favorite: 1-0-1 ATS (2 games) · 0-2 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 1-2 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
Since 2020: 13-16-1 ATS (30 games) · 9-21 O/U (30 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalLouisiana · 8 of 9
362.3
Yards / game
364.8
1.92
Points / drive
2.38
2.8
TDs / game
4.0
45.5
3rd-down %
34.0
63.6
RZ TD %
86.7
0.5
Turnover margin
1.0
0.8
Sacks / game
1.8
3.8
TFL / game
5.8
8.5
Havoc / game
13.0
44.0 / 56.0
Pass / Rush split
36.2 / 63.8
2026 · Situational matchup
When Arkansas State has the ball
Arkansas State's early-down offense ranks 51st of 138. Louisiana's early-down defense ranks 32nd of 138.
Arkansas State's passing-down offense ranks 133rd of 138. Louisiana's passing-down defense ranks 63rd of 138.
Arkansas State's third-down offense ranks 95th of 138. Louisiana's third-down defense ranks 75th of 138.
Arkansas State's red-zone offense ranks 103rd of 138. Louisiana's red-zone defense ranks 89th of 138.
When Louisiana has the ball
Louisiana's early-down offense ranks 72nd of 138. Arkansas State's early-down defense ranks 70th of 138.
Louisiana's passing-down offense ranks 66th of 138. Arkansas State's passing-down defense ranks 76th of 138.
Louisiana's third-down offense ranks 109th of 138. Arkansas State's third-down defense ranks 98th of 138.
Louisiana's red-zone offense ranks 7th of 138. Arkansas State's red-zone defense ranks 131st of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(-0.067 last 3 vs -0.036 season)
▲Defense form-0.162 last 3 vs -0.049 season (-0.113)
▼Offense form-0.126 last 3 vs -0.028 season (-0.098)
Defense formabout the same(-0.265 last 3 vs -0.250 season)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingTrey Owens — 837 yd, 4 TD
RushingSolomon Baggett — 160 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingHunter Summers — 211 yd, 1 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingLunch Winfield — 660 yd, 2 TD
RushingLunch Winfield — 295 yd, 6 TD
ReceivingRussell Babineaux — 116 yd, 1 TD