Fourth Down Data
#8Florida4-0 · SEC@#25Missouri3-1 · SEC
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Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET· Faurot Field· Florida -5 · O/U 57
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 857 mi / 0 miForecast: 69°F · wind 6 mph · Clear
Market context
Florida -5 · O/U 57
total opened 56.5, now 57
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Florida as road favorite
2026 overall: 3-1 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road favorite: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 0-1 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Since 2020: 4-10 ATS (14 games) · 8-6 O/U (14 games)
Missouri as home underdog
2026 overall: 1-2 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
2026 as home underdog: none in this role
Last season (2025): 0-1-1 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 9-6-1 ATS (16 games) · 7-8-1 O/U (16 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalFlorida · 6 of 9
532.8
Yards / game
418.8
4.85
Points / drive
2.50
6.5
TDs / game
4.3
48.8
3rd-down %
41.5
83.3
RZ TD %
52.4
1.0
Turnover margin
1.0
3.0
Sacks / game
3.0
6.8
TFL / game
7.0
18.5
Havoc / game
17.3
37.0 / 63.0
Pass / Rush split
45.1 / 54.9
2026 · Situational matchup
When Florida has the ball
Florida's early-down offense ranks 2nd of 138. Missouri's early-down defense ranks 23rd of 138.
Florida's passing-down offense ranks 26th of 138. Missouri's passing-down defense ranks 67th of 138.
Florida's third-down offense ranks 45th of 138. Missouri's third-down defense ranks 43rd of 138.
Florida's red-zone offense ranks 37th of 138. Missouri's red-zone defense ranks 82nd of 138.
When Missouri has the ball
Missouri's early-down offense ranks 87th of 138. Florida's early-down defense ranks 62nd of 138.
Missouri's passing-down offense ranks 14th of 138. Florida's passing-down defense ranks 130th of 138.
Missouri's third-down offense ranks 30th of 138. Florida's third-down defense ranks 125th of 138.
Missouri's red-zone offense ranks 82nd of 138. Florida's red-zone defense ranks 104th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(0.310 last 3 vs 0.341 season)
Defense formabout the same(0.000 last 3 vs 0.026 season)
Offense formabout the same(0.025 last 3 vs 0.072 season)
▼Defense form-0.124 last 3 vs -0.208 season (+0.084)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingAaron Philo — 917 yd, 7 TD
RushingJadan Baugh — 600 yd, 11 TD
ReceivingVernell Brown III — 271 yd, 2 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingAustin Simmons — 947 yd, 11 TD
RushingJamal Roberts — 395 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingCayden Lee — 412 yd, 4 TD