Thu, Oct 15, 8:00 PM ET· Bobcat Stadium· Texas State -11.5 · O/U 67
Rest 12d / 12dTravel 841 mi / 0 miForecast: 79°F · wind 7 mph · Clear
Market context
Texas State -11.5 · O/U 67
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Colorado State as road underdog
2026 overall: 2-2-1 ATS (5 games) · 5-0 O/U (5 games)
2026 as road underdog: 0-0-1 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 2-3 ATS (5 games) · 3-2 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 11-11-1 ATS (23 games) · 10-13 O/U (23 games)
Texas State as home favorite
2026 overall: 2-3 ATS (5 games) · 4-1 O/U (5 games)
2026 as home favorite: 2-1 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 3-3 ATS (6 games) · 3-3 O/U (6 games)
Since 2020: 11-14 ATS (25 games) · 12-13 O/U (25 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalColorado State · 5 of 9
448.4
Yards / game
531.6
3.02
Points / drive
2.98
4.8
TDs / game
4.4
47.2
3rd-down %
55.4
81.0
RZ TD %
54.5
1.4
Turnover margin
-0.8
1.4
Sacks / game
1.0
4.4
TFL / game
5.2
11.2
Havoc / game
11.8
55.4 / 44.6
Pass / Rush split
37.8 / 62.2
2026 · Situational matchup
When Colorado State has the ball
Colorado State's early-down offense ranks 34th of 138. Texas State's early-down defense ranks 101st of 138.
Colorado State's passing-down offense ranks 21st of 138. Texas State's passing-down defense ranks 93rd of 138.
Colorado State's third-down offense ranks 20th of 138. Texas State's third-down defense ranks 123rd of 138.
Colorado State's red-zone offense ranks 16th of 138. Texas State's red-zone defense ranks 77th of 138.
When Texas State has the ball
Texas State's early-down offense ranks 33rd of 138. Colorado State's early-down defense ranks 138th of 138.
Texas State's passing-down offense ranks 2nd of 138. Colorado State's passing-down defense ranks 136th of 138.
Texas State's third-down offense ranks 8th of 138. Colorado State's third-down defense ranks 131st of 138.
Texas State's red-zone offense ranks 98th of 138. Colorado State's red-zone defense ranks 102nd of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▼Offense form0.068 last 3 vs 0.174 season (-0.106)
▼Defense form0.515 last 3 vs 0.330 season (+0.185)
▲Offense form0.295 last 3 vs 0.197 season (+0.099)
▲Defense form-0.027 last 3 vs 0.054 season (-0.081)
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingK'saan Farrar — 649 yd, 3 TD
RushingMel Brown — 409 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingRJ Vick — 367 yd, 4 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingBrad Jackson — 1226 yd, 13 TD
RushingTorrance Burgess Jr. — 614 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingChris Dawn, Jr. — 304 yd, 4 TD
2026 · Collision map
Where each offense meets the other defense — FBS rank first, season value after.
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Early downs
Colorado State offense
34thof 1380.103195 plays
vs
Texas State defense · allowed
101stof 1380.033Colorado State defense · allowed
138thof 1380.317vs
Texas State offense
33rdof 1380.106259 plays
Passing downs
Colorado State offense
21stof 1380.251102 plays
vs
Texas State defense · allowed
93rdof 1380.094134 plays
Colorado State defense · allowed
136thof 1380.37087 plays
vs
Texas State offense
2ndof 1380.423112 plays
Third down
Colorado State offense
20thof 1380.32372 plays
vs
Texas State defense · allowed
123rdof 1380.25675 plays
Colorado State defense · allowed
131stof 1380.37255 plays · small sample
vs
Texas State offense
8thof 1380.48375 plays
Red zone
Colorado State offense
16thof 1380.25366 plays
vs
Texas State defense · allowed
77thof 138-0.02863 plays
Colorado State defense · allowed
102ndof 1380.10753 plays · small sample
vs
Texas State offense
98thof 138-0.07664 plays
Field advancement
Colorado State offense
41stof 13854.1%vs
Texas State defense · allowed
121stof 13851.8%Colorado State defense · allowed
132ndof 13856.2%vs
Texas State offense
20thof 13858.7%Away
Home
Colorado State Offense vs Texas State DefenseColorado State · 11 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
0.13#43
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#116-0.17
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
0.206#12
264 plays
EPA/Play
#1160.089
allowed · 291 plays
0.053#54
147 plays
EPA/Pass
#1160.158
allowed · 173 plays
0.397#1
117 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#66-0.013
allowed · 118 plays
47.7%#62
264 plays
Success Rate
#12549.8%
allowed · 291 plays
44.9%#72
Pass Success Rate
#12148.3%
allowed
51.3%#39
Rush Success Rate
#12151.2%
allowed
54.1%#41
Available Yards %
#12151.8%
allowed
68.8#42
Net Field Position
#11568.9
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
0.103#34
195 plays
Early Downs EPA/Play
#1010.033
allowed
6.0#13
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#457.5
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Colorado State Defense vs Texas State OffenseTexas State · 10 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.47#137
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#440.12
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
0.334#138
allowed · 253 plays
EPA/Play
#230.154
329 plays
0.367#138
allowed · 107 plays
EPA/Pass
#260.190
134 plays
0.309#138
allowed · 146 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#270.129
195 plays
58.1%#138
allowed · 253 plays
Success Rate
#3549.8%
329 plays
53.6%#137
allowed
Pass Success Rate
#2951.5%
57.3%#138
allowed
Rush Success Rate
#6848.7%
56.2%#132
allowed
Available Yards %
#2058.7%
71.7#66
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
Net Field Position
#12373.4
0.317#138
allowed
Early Downs EPA/Play
#330.106
259 plays
7.4#59
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#45.5
2026 · Situational EPATexas State · 4 of 6
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
0.197
273 plays
Non-garbage · Off
0.154
329 plays
0.319
262 plays
Non-garbage · Def (allowed)
0.092
306 plays
0.253
66 plays
Red Zone · Off
-0.076
64 plays
0.107
53 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Def (allowed)
-0.028
63 plays
0.323
72 plays
3rd Down · Off
0.483
75 plays
0.372
55 plays · small sample
3rd Down · Def (allowed)
0.256
75 plays