Wed, Nov 11, 7:30 PM ET· Kelly/Shorts Stadium· Central Michigan -18 · O/U 43.5
Rest — / 7dTravel — / 0 miForecast: 44°F · wind 7 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Central Michigan -18 · O/U 43.5
opened Central Michigan -16.5, now Central Michigan -18
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Sacramento State as road underdog
2026 overall: 3-6 ATS (9 games) · 3-5-1 O/U (9 games)
2026 as road underdog: 0-4 ATS (4 games) · 2-1-1 O/U (4 games)
Last season (2025): 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 0-1 O/U (1 game)
Since 2020: 4-5 ATS (9 games) · 5-3-1 O/U (9 games)
Central Michigan as home favorite
2026 overall: 5-4 ATS (9 games) · 3-6 O/U (9 games)
2026 as home favorite: 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 4-0 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
Since 2020: 8-14 ATS (22 games) · 14-7 O/U (21 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalCentral Michigan · 8 of 9
288.7
Yards / game
305.6
1.17
Points / drive
1.89
1.7
TDs / game
2.6
31.9
3rd-down %
37.2
37.5
RZ TD %
72.2
-0.5
Turnover margin
0.3
1.4
Sacks / game
1.7
4.1
TFL / game
3.8
9.0
Havoc / game
10.0
51.5 / 48.5
Pass / Rush split
35.4 / 64.6
2026 · Situational matchup
When Sacramento State has the ball
Sacramento State's early-down offense ranks 137th of 138. Central Michigan's early-down defense ranks 37th of 138.
Sacramento State's passing-down offense ranks 138th of 138. Central Michigan's passing-down defense ranks 53rd of 138.
Sacramento State's third-down offense ranks 138th of 138. Central Michigan's third-down defense ranks 98th of 138.
Sacramento State's red-zone offense ranks 135th of 138. Central Michigan's red-zone defense ranks 100th of 138.
When Central Michigan has the ball
Central Michigan's early-down offense ranks 115th of 138. Sacramento State's early-down defense ranks 93rd of 138.
Central Michigan's passing-down offense ranks 90th of 138. Sacramento State's passing-down defense ranks 76th of 138.
Central Michigan's third-down offense ranks 72nd of 138. Sacramento State's third-down defense ranks 51st of 138.
Central Michigan's red-zone offense ranks 3rd of 138. Sacramento State's red-zone defense ranks 87th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▲Offense form-0.172 last 3 vs -0.285 season (+0.113)
▲Defense form-0.173 last 3 vs 0.018 season (-0.192)
▲Offense form0.066 last 3 vs -0.155 season (+0.221)
▲Defense form-0.194 last 3 vs -0.059 season (-0.135)
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingJackson Sharman — 1476 yd, 9 TD
RushingIsaiah Ene — 411 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingMatt Coleman — 538 yd, 6 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingJadyn Glasser — 638 yd, 3 TD
RushingAngel Flores — 618 yd, 4 TD
ReceivingLangston Lewis — 379 yd, 2 TD
2026 · Collision map
Where each offense meets the other defense — FBS rank first, season value after.
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Early downs
Sacramento State offense
137thof 138-0.242354 plays
vs
Central Michigan defense · allowed
37thof 138-0.075Sacramento State defense · allowed
93rdof 1380.019vs
Central Michigan offense
115thof 138-0.095321 plays
Passing downs
Sacramento State offense
138thof 138-0.348230 plays
vs
Central Michigan defense · allowed
53rdof 138-0.062184 plays
Sacramento State defense · allowed
76thof 138-0.012211 plays
vs
Central Michigan offense
90thof 138-0.052187 plays
Third down
Sacramento State offense
138thof 138-0.370141 plays
vs
Central Michigan defense · allowed
98thof 1380.129114 plays
Sacramento State defense · allowed
51stof 138-0.017121 plays
vs
Central Michigan offense
72ndof 1380.044123 plays
Red zone
Sacramento State offense
135thof 138-0.46359 plays · small sample
vs
Central Michigan defense · allowed
100thof 1380.10587 plays
Sacramento State defense · allowed
87thof 1380.04674 plays
vs
Central Michigan offense
3rdof 1380.37257 plays · small sample
Field advancement
Sacramento State offense
135thof 13834.8%vs
Central Michigan defense · allowed
100thof 13847.7%Sacramento State defense · allowed
75thof 13844.8%vs
Central Michigan offense
125thof 13839.1%Away
Home
Sacramento State Offense vs Central Michigan DefenseCentral Michigan · 10 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.54#137
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#101-0.13
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
-0.257#138
476 plays
EPA/Play
#62-0.025
allowed · 437 plays
-0.230#131
258 plays
EPA/Pass
#14-0.205
allowed · 187 plays
-0.290#137
218 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#1140.110
allowed · 250 plays
40.3%#132
476 plays
Success Rate
#12248.7%
allowed · 437 plays
41.5%#104
Pass Success Rate
#6242.3%
allowed
39.0%#134
Rush Success Rate
#13052.3%
allowed
34.8%#135
Available Yards %
#10047.7%
allowed
70.6#76
Net Field Position
#11169.4
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
-0.242#137
354 plays
Early Downs EPA/Play
#37-0.075
allowed
7.3#101
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#996.8
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Sacramento State Defense vs Central Michigan OffenseSacramento State · 7 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.23#116
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#111-0.22
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
0.000#76
allowed · 500 plays
EPA/Play
#104-0.064
439 plays
-0.044#65
allowed · 210 plays
EPA/Pass
#138-0.259
151 plays
0.033#86
allowed · 290 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#580.039
288 plays
46.6%#84
allowed · 500 plays
Success Rate
#10644.0%
439 plays
43.0%#74
allowed
Pass Success Rate
#13832.5%
47.3%#77
allowed
Rush Success Rate
#4250.0%
44.8%#75
allowed
Available Yards %
#12539.1%
70.8#80
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
Net Field Position
#9871.8
0.019#93
allowed
Early Downs EPA/Play
#115-0.095
321 plays
6.7#109
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#536.8
2026 · Situational EPACentral Michigan · 4 of 6
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
-0.263
485 plays
Non-garbage · Off
-0.075
439 plays
0.009
501 plays
Non-garbage · Def (allowed)
-0.030
443 plays
-0.463
59 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Off
0.372
57 plays · small sample
0.046
74 plays
Red Zone · Def (allowed)
0.105
87 plays
-0.370
141 plays
3rd Down · Off
0.044
123 plays
-0.017
121 plays
3rd Down · Def (allowed)
0.129
114 plays