Fourth Down Data
Western Michigan2-2 · Mid-American@Buffalo2-2 · Mid-American
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Sat, Oct 3, 1:00 PM ET· UB Stadium· Western Michigan -13.5 · O/U 46.5
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 350 mi / 0 miForecast: 63°F · wind 6 mph · Clear
Market context
Western Michigan -13.5 · O/U 46.5
opened Western Michigan -14, now Western Michigan -13.5 · total opened 47.5, now 46.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Western Michigan as road favorite
2026 overall: 1-2 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
2026 as road favorite: 0-1 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 2-0-1 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
Since 2020: 8-6-2 ATS (16 games) · 10-6 O/U (16 games)
Buffalo as home underdog
2026 overall: 0-4 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home underdog: none in this role
Last season (2025): 1-1-1 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
Since 2020: 6-5-2 ATS (13 games) · 6-7 O/U (13 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalWestern Michigan · 5 of 9
297.8
Yards / game
314.3
2.08
Points / drive
1.50
3.0
TDs / game
2.5
40.4
3rd-down %
35.2
75.0
RZ TD %
69.2
0.8
Turnover margin
-1.8
0.8
Sacks / game
1.0
2.5
TFL / game
4.3
8.0
Havoc / game
11.0
40.3 / 59.7
Pass / Rush split
47.0 / 53.0
2026 · Situational matchup
When Western Michigan has the ball
Western Michigan's early-down offense ranks 75th of 138. Buffalo's early-down defense ranks 66th of 138.
Western Michigan's passing-down offense ranks 27th of 138. Buffalo's passing-down defense ranks 61st of 138.
Western Michigan's third-down offense ranks 51st of 138. Buffalo's third-down defense ranks 87th of 138.
Western Michigan's red-zone offense ranks 11th of 138. Buffalo's red-zone defense ranks 72nd of 138.
When Buffalo has the ball
Buffalo's early-down offense ranks 117th of 138. Western Michigan's early-down defense ranks 98th of 138.
Buffalo's passing-down offense ranks 120th of 138. Western Michigan's passing-down defense ranks 125th of 138.
Buffalo's third-down offense ranks 111th of 138. Western Michigan's third-down defense ranks 94th of 138.
Buffalo's red-zone offense ranks 15th of 138. Western Michigan's red-zone defense ranks 70th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▲Offense form0.020 last 3 vs -0.030 season (+0.050)
▼Defense form0.044 last 3 vs -0.023 season (+0.067)
Offense formabout the same(-0.159 last 3 vs -0.137 season)
▼Defense form0.009 last 3 vs -0.045 season (+0.054)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingBroc Lowry — 527 yd, 4 TD
RushingJalen Buckley — 225 yd, 4 TD
ReceivingAveion Chenault — 216 yd, 1 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingJason Wright — 385 yd, 3 TD
RushingMessiah Burch — 246 yd, 0 TD
ReceivingChance Morrow — 307 yd, 6 TD