Fourth Down Data
Navy1-2 · American Athletic@Air Force2-1 · Mountain West
Share →
Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM ET· Falcon Stadium· Elevation 6,643 ft· Air Force -3.5 · O/U 46
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 8d / 7dTravel 1,516 mi / 0 miForecast: 70°F · wind 6 mph · Clear
Market context
Air Force -3.5 · O/U 46
opened Air Force -2.5, now Air Force -3.5 · total opened 47, now 46
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Navy as road underdog
2026 overall: 0-3 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
2026 as road underdog: none in this role
Last season (2025): 1-2 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
Since 2020: 13-8 ATS (21 games) · 8-13 O/U (21 games)
Air Force as home favorite
2026 overall: 1-2 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
2026 as home favorite: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 0-1 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 1-3 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
Since 2020: 13-15 ATS (28 games) · 13-15 O/U (28 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalEven · 4-4-1
424.3
Yards / game
430.3
2.62
Points / drive
3.17
4.0
TDs / game
4.0
44.7
3rd-down %
48.9
77.8
RZ TD %
73.3
-1.0
Turnover margin
0.3
3.3
Sacks / game
1.7
6.3
TFL / game
4.0
11.3
Havoc / game
10.7
20.1 / 79.9
Pass / Rush split
15.4 / 84.6
2026 · Situational matchup
When Navy has the ball
Navy's early-down offense ranks 67th of 138. Air Force's early-down defense ranks 77th of 138.
Navy's passing-down offense ranks 41st of 138. Air Force's passing-down defense ranks 19th of 138.
Navy's third-down offense ranks 19th of 138. Air Force's third-down defense ranks 17th of 138.
Navy's red-zone offense ranks 8th of 138. Air Force's red-zone defense ranks 1st of 138.
When Air Force has the ball
Air Force's early-down offense ranks 64th of 138. Navy's early-down defense ranks 130th of 138.
Air Force's passing-down offense ranks 90th of 138. Navy's passing-down defense ranks 134th of 138.
Air Force's third-down offense ranks 46th of 138. Navy's third-down defense ranks 90th of 138.
Air Force's red-zone offense ranks 24th of 138. Navy's red-zone defense ranks 46th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Season to date · 3 games
Season to date · 3 games
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingJackson Gutierrez — 204 yd, 2 TD
RushingBraxton Woodson — 296 yd, 4 TD
ReceivingJordan Collins — 68 yd, 1 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingLiam Szarka — 214 yd, 1 TD
RushingLiam Szarka — 310 yd, 5 TD
ReceivingSimon Kibbee — 80 yd, 0 TD