Fourth Down Data
Bowling Green2-5 · Mid-American@Buffalo4-3 · Mid-American
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Sat, Oct 24, 3:30 PM ET· UB Stadium· Buffalo -3 · O/U 44.5
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 272 mi / 0 miForecast: 60°F · wind 3 mph · Clear
Market context
Buffalo -3 · O/U 44.5
opened Buffalo -4.5, now Buffalo -3
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Bowling Green as road underdog
2026 overall: 3-4 ATS (7 games) · 5-2 O/U (7 games)
2026 as road underdog: 1-2 ATS (3 games) · 3-0 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
Since 2020: 16-14 ATS (30 games) · 18-12 O/U (30 games)
Buffalo as home favorite
2026 overall: 2-4-1 ATS (7 games) · 4-3 O/U (7 games)
2026 as home favorite: 0-2-1 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 0-3 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
Since 2020: 8-14-1 ATS (23 games) · 10-13 O/U (23 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalBowling Green · 5 of 9
280.1
Yards / game
323.4
1.78
Points / drive
1.60
1.9
TDs / game
2.3
36.5
3rd-down %
36.8
56.3
RZ TD %
50.0
-0.1
Turnover margin
-0.6
2.6
Sacks / game
1.4
5.3
TFL / game
4.6
10.9
Havoc / game
11.7
43.0 / 57.0
Pass / Rush split
43.1 / 56.9
2026 · Situational matchup
When Bowling Green has the ball
Bowling Green's early-down offense ranks 102nd of 138. Buffalo's early-down defense ranks 40th of 138.
Bowling Green's passing-down offense ranks 133rd of 138. Buffalo's passing-down defense ranks 25th of 138.
Bowling Green's third-down offense ranks 126th of 138. Buffalo's third-down defense ranks 83rd of 138.
Bowling Green's red-zone offense ranks 67th of 138. Buffalo's red-zone defense ranks 122nd of 138.
When Buffalo has the ball
Buffalo's early-down offense ranks 124th of 138. Bowling Green's early-down defense ranks 124th of 138.
Buffalo's passing-down offense ranks 126th of 138. Bowling Green's passing-down defense ranks 65th of 138.
Buffalo's third-down offense ranks 122nd of 138. Bowling Green's third-down defense ranks 20th of 138.
Buffalo's red-zone offense ranks 84th of 138. Bowling Green's red-zone defense ranks 80th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▲Offense form0.141 last 3 vs -0.154 season (+0.295)
▲Defense form-0.031 last 3 vs 0.034 season (-0.066)
Offense formabout the same(-0.115 last 3 vs -0.128 season)
Defense formabout the same(-0.053 last 3 vs -0.048 season)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingJay Kastantin — 1201 yd, 7 TD
RushingAustyn Dendy — 332 yd, 4 TD
ReceivingJeremiah Scoby — 269 yd, 0 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingJason Wright — 860 yd, 6 TD
RushingMessiah Burch — 661 yd, 2 TD
ReceivingChance Morrow — 441 yd, 6 TD