Sat, Oct 3, 4:00 PM ET· Dreamstyle Stadium· Elevation 5,100 ft· New Mexico -22.5 · O/U 49
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 228 mi / 0 miForecast: 71°F · wind 2 mph · Clear
Market context
New Mexico -22.5 · O/U 49
total opened 48.5, now 49
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
UTEP as road underdog
2026 overall: 1-3 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road underdog: 0-2 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 1-4 ATS (5 games) · 3-2 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 13-19 ATS (32 games) · 21-11 O/U (32 games)
New Mexico as home favorite
2026 overall: 4-0 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home favorite: 2-0 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 2-3 ATS (5 games) · 1-4 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 7-7 ATS (14 games) · 7-7 O/U (14 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalNew Mexico · 9 of 9
265.3
Yards / game
359.8
1.93
Points / drive
3.22
2.5
TDs / game
5.0
25.5
3rd-down %
38.5
33.3
RZ TD %
75.0
0.3
Turnover margin
3.5
1.0
Sacks / game
3.0
4.5
TFL / game
8.3
8.5
Havoc / game
17.3
35.4 / 64.6
Pass / Rush split
30.4 / 69.6
2026 · Situational matchup
When UTEP has the ball
UTEP's early-down offense ranks 107th of 138. New Mexico's early-down defense ranks 1st of 138.
UTEP's passing-down offense ranks 121st of 138. New Mexico's passing-down defense ranks 21st of 138.
UTEP's third-down offense ranks 122nd of 138. New Mexico's third-down defense ranks 69th of 138.
UTEP's red-zone offense ranks 132nd of 138. New Mexico's red-zone defense ranks 74th of 138.
When New Mexico has the ball
New Mexico's early-down offense ranks 114th of 138. UTEP's early-down defense ranks 122nd of 138.
New Mexico's passing-down offense ranks 115th of 138. UTEP's passing-down defense ranks 93rd of 138.
New Mexico's third-down offense ranks 49th of 138. UTEP's third-down defense ranks 118th of 138.
New Mexico's red-zone offense ranks 39th of 138. UTEP's red-zone defense ranks 102nd of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(-0.066 last 3 vs -0.054 season)
Defense formabout the same(0.166 last 3 vs 0.159 season)
Offense formabout the same(0.031 last 3 vs 0.060 season)
▼Defense form-0.320 last 3 vs -0.377 season (+0.058)
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingEJ Colson Jr. — 496 yd, 7 TD
RushingTavorus Jones — 196 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingCarver Cheeks — 143 yd, 3 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingToa Fa'avae — 390 yd, 2 TD
RushingScottre Humphrey — 285 yd, 5 TD
ReceivingCade Keith — 169 yd, 1 TD
2026 · Collision map
Where each offense meets the other defense — FBS rank first, season value after.
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Early downs
UTEP offense
107thof 138-0.05897 plays
vs
New Mexico defense · allowed
1stof 138-0.466UTEP defense · allowed
122ndof 1380.113vs
New Mexico offense
114thof 138-0.096145 plays
Passing downs
UTEP offense
121stof 138-0.15776 plays
vs
New Mexico defense · allowed
21stof 138-0.20997 plays
UTEP defense · allowed
93rdof 1380.06772 plays
vs
New Mexico offense
115thof 138-0.13586 plays
Third down
UTEP offense
122ndof 138-0.21748 plays · small sample
vs
New Mexico defense · allowed
69thof 1380.00453 plays · small sample
UTEP defense · allowed
118thof 1380.24949 plays · small sample
vs
New Mexico offense
49thof 1380.19952 plays · small sample
Red zone
UTEP offense
132ndof 138-0.52326 plays · small sample
vs
New Mexico defense · allowed
74thof 138-0.00111 plays · small sample
UTEP defense · allowed
102ndof 1380.15041 plays · small sample
vs
New Mexico offense
39thof 1380.16764 plays
Field advancement
UTEP offense
131stof 13835.0%vs
New Mexico defense · allowed
5thof 13825.7%UTEP defense · allowed
110thof 13848.5%vs
New Mexico offense
46thof 13854.1%Away
Home
UTEP Offense vs New Mexico DefenseNew Mexico · 11 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.11#96
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#100.25
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
-0.077#113
131 plays · small sample
EPA/Play
#5-0.312
allowed · 143 plays · small sample
0.215#29
45 plays · small sample
EPA/Pass
#18-0.227
allowed · 70 plays
-0.230#133
86 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#2-0.394
allowed · 73 plays
42.0%#121
131 plays · small sample
Success Rate
#131.5%
allowed · 143 plays · small sample
46.7%#63
Pass Success Rate
#2637.4%
allowed
39.5%#135
Rush Success Rate
#334.1%
allowed
35.0%#131
Available Yards %
#525.7%
allowed
69.1#47
Net Field Position
#477.4
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
-0.058#107
97 plays
Early Downs EPA/Play
#1-0.466
allowed
7.3#91
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#68.7
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
UTEP Defense vs New Mexico OffenseNew Mexico · 10 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.37#136
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#290.15
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
0.179#133
allowed · 177 plays
EPA/Play
#700.024
190 plays
0.378#136
allowed · 80 plays
EPA/Pass
#104-0.116
65 plays
0.015#81
allowed · 97 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#430.097
125 plays
55.9%#138
allowed · 177 plays
Success Rate
#7047.4%
190 plays
54.4%#136
allowed
Pass Success Rate
#11140.0%
47.9%#90
allowed
Rush Success Rate
#4351.2%
48.5%#110
allowed
Available Yards %
#4654.1%
67.4#129
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
Net Field Position
#157.6
0.113#122
allowed
Early Downs EPA/Play
#114-0.096
145 plays
6.3#121
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#1378.7
2026 · Situational EPANew Mexico · 6 of 6
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
-0.089
141 plays · small sample
Non-garbage · Off
0.041
200 plays
0.171
182 plays
Non-garbage · Def (allowed)
-0.309
160 plays
-0.523
26 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Off
0.167
64 plays
0.150
41 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Def (allowed)
-0.001
11 plays · small sample
-0.217
48 plays · small sample
3rd Down · Off
0.199
52 plays · small sample
0.249
49 plays · small sample
3rd Down · Def (allowed)
0.004
53 plays · small sample