Fourth Down Data
TCU2-3 · Big 12@Baylor4-1 · Big 12
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Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM ET· McLane Stadium· Baylor -6.5 · O/U 52.5
Rest 14d / 14dTravel 81 mi / 0 miForecast: 66°F · wind 10 mph · Clear
Market context
Baylor -6.5 · O/U 52.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
TCU as road underdog
2026 overall: 2-3 ATS (5 games) · 1-4 O/U (5 games)
2026 as road underdog: none in this role
Last season (2025): 0-1-1 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 5-10-2 ATS (17 games) · 11-6 O/U (17 games)
Baylor as home favorite
2026 overall: 4-1 ATS (5 games) · 2-3 O/U (5 games)
2026 as home favorite: 2-1 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 1-4 ATS (5 games) · 1-4 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 14-13-1 ATS (28 games) · 12-15-1 O/U (28 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalBaylor · 8 of 9
405.4
Yards / game
461.4
1.90
Points / drive
2.75
3.0
TDs / game
4.2
40.9
3rd-down %
43.2
60.0
RZ TD %
52.0
-0.4
Turnover margin
0.4
2.0
Sacks / game
3.6
4.8
TFL / game
8.4
11.2
Havoc / game
18.8
47.9 / 52.1
Pass / Rush split
50.2 / 49.8
2026 · Situational matchup
When TCU has the ball
TCU's early-down offense ranks 112th of 138. Baylor's early-down defense ranks 32nd of 138.
TCU's passing-down offense ranks 107th of 138. Baylor's passing-down defense ranks 32nd of 138.
TCU's third-down offense ranks 66th of 138. Baylor's third-down defense ranks 60th of 138.
TCU's red-zone offense ranks 56th of 138. Baylor's red-zone defense ranks 12th of 138.
When Baylor has the ball
Baylor's early-down offense ranks 64th of 138. TCU's early-down defense ranks 56th of 138.
Baylor's passing-down offense ranks 46th of 138. TCU's passing-down defense ranks 76th of 138.
Baylor's third-down offense ranks 75th of 138. TCU's third-down defense ranks 4th of 138.
Baylor's red-zone offense ranks 112th of 138. TCU's red-zone defense ranks 28th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(-0.096 last 3 vs -0.060 season)
▲Defense form-0.170 last 3 vs -0.116 season (-0.055)
Offense formabout the same(0.077 last 3 vs 0.058 season)
▼Defense form-0.099 last 3 vs -0.165 season (+0.066)
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingJaden Craig — 1400 yd, 8 TD
RushingJeremy Payne — 432 yd, 2 TD
ReceivingEd Small — 403 yd, 1 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingDJ Lagway — 860 yd, 8 TD
RushingDawson Pendergrass — 316 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingGavin Freeman — 479 yd, 2 TD