Fourth Down Data
Missouri State1-3 · Conference USA@Western Kentucky1-4 · Conference USA
Thu, Oct 8, 7:00 PM ET· Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium· Missouri State -1.5 · O/U 55.5
Rest 12d / 7dTravel 376 mi / 0 miForecast: 68°F · wind 4 mph · Clear
Market context
Missouri State -1.5 · O/U 55.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Missouri State as road favorite
2026 overall: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road favorite: none in this role
Last season (2025): 2-0 ATS (2 games) · 0-2 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 2-0 ATS (2 games) · 0-2 O/U (2 games)
Western Kentucky as home underdog
2026 overall: 2-3 ATS (5 games) · 3-2 O/U (5 games)
2026 as home underdog: none in this role
Last season (2025): none in this role
Since 2020: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalMissouri State · 6 of 9
345.3
Yards / game
347.0
2.45
Points / drive
1.24
3.0
TDs / game
2.6
33.3
3rd-down %
38.3
61.5
RZ TD %
69.2
0.5
Turnover margin
-1.0
1.5
Sacks / game
0.8
4.3
TFL / game
3.6
12.3
Havoc / game
9.0
42.9 / 57.1
Pass / Rush split
51.5 / 48.5
2026 · Situational matchup
When Missouri State has the ball
Missouri State's early-down offense ranks 56th of 138. Western Kentucky's early-down defense ranks 125th of 138.
Missouri State's passing-down offense ranks 118th of 138. Western Kentucky's passing-down defense ranks 116th of 138.
Missouri State's third-down offense ranks 85th of 138. Western Kentucky's third-down defense ranks 55th of 138.
Missouri State's red-zone offense ranks 102nd of 138. Western Kentucky's red-zone defense ranks 118th of 138.
When Western Kentucky has the ball
Western Kentucky's early-down offense ranks 107th of 138. Missouri State's early-down defense ranks 98th of 138.
Western Kentucky's passing-down offense ranks 90th of 138. Missouri State's passing-down defense ranks 113th of 138.
Western Kentucky's third-down offense ranks 88th of 138. Missouri State's third-down defense ranks 111th of 138.
Western Kentucky's red-zone offense ranks 5th of 138. Missouri State's red-zone defense ranks 83rd of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▲Offense form0.192 last 3 vs -0.045 season (+0.237)
Defense formabout the same(0.059 last 3 vs 0.039 season)
Offense formabout the same(-0.071 last 3 vs -0.100 season)
▲Defense form-0.155 last 3 vs 0.061 season (-0.217)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingSkyler Locklear — 699 yd, 4 TD
RushingBreezy Dubar — 194 yd, 2 TD
ReceivingIsaiah Myers — 342 yd, 2 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingRodney Tisdale Jr. — 852 yd, 4 TD
RushingAjay Allen — 216 yd, 2 TD
ReceivingJonathan Stafford Jr. — 260 yd, 0 TD