Thu, Oct 8, 7:30 PM ET· Alamodome· UTSA -7 · O/U 55
Rest 5d / 5dTravel 973 mi / 0 mi
Market context
UTSA -7 · O/U 55
total opened 57, now 55
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
South Florida as road underdog
2026 overall: 2-3 ATS (5 games) · 2-3 O/U (5 games)
2026 as road underdog: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 2-1 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
Since 2020: 17-11 ATS (28 games) · 15-13 O/U (28 games)
UTSA as home favorite
2026 overall: 2-1-1 ATS (4 games) · 1-3 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home favorite: 0-0-1 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 3-2 ATS (5 games) · 5-0 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 14-15-1 ATS (30 games) · 18-12 O/U (30 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalSouth Florida · 5 of 9
344.2
Yards / game
384.6
2.42
Points / drive
2.53
3.2
TDs / game
3.4
45.5
3rd-down %
32.8
68.8
RZ TD %
50.0
0.4
Turnover margin
0.8
1.8
Sacks / game
1.2
7.4
TFL / game
4.8
12.4
Havoc / game
10.4
42.6 / 57.4
Pass / Rush split
47.7 / 52.3
2026 · Situational matchup
When South Florida has the ball
South Florida's early-down offense ranks 71st of 138. UTSA's early-down defense ranks 76th of 138.
South Florida's passing-down offense ranks 74th of 138. UTSA's passing-down defense ranks 89th of 138.
South Florida's third-down offense ranks 77th of 138. UTSA's third-down defense ranks 97th of 138.
South Florida's red-zone offense ranks 27th of 138. UTSA's red-zone defense ranks 95th of 138.
When UTSA has the ball
UTSA's early-down offense ranks 72nd of 138. South Florida's early-down defense ranks 64th of 138.
UTSA's passing-down offense ranks 86th of 138. South Florida's passing-down defense ranks 18th of 138.
UTSA's third-down offense ranks 79th of 138. South Florida's third-down defense ranks 27th of 138.
UTSA's red-zone offense ranks 104th of 138. South Florida's red-zone defense ranks 4th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(0.023 last 3 vs 0.038 season)
Defense formabout the same(-0.053 last 3 vs -0.067 season)
▼Offense form-0.053 last 3 vs 0.049 season (-0.102)
Defense formabout the same(0.026 last 3 vs -0.001 season)
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingMichael Van Buren Jr. — 896 yd, 3 TD
RushingD.J. Crowther — 393 yd, 6 TD
ReceivingBryson Rodgers — 240 yd, 1 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingOwen McCown — 1010 yd, 7 TD
RushingWill Henderson III — 398 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingDJ Allen, Jr. — 269 yd, 2 TD
2026 · Collision map
Where each offense meets the other defense — FBS rank first, season value after.
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Early downs
South Florida offense
71stof 1380.007221 plays
vs
UTSA defense · allowed
76thof 138-0.024South Florida defense · allowed
64thof 138-0.045vs
UTSA offense
72ndof 1380.005217 plays
Passing downs
South Florida offense
74thof 1380.015103 plays
vs
UTSA defense · allowed
89thof 1380.055129 plays
South Florida defense · allowed
18thof 138-0.208110 plays
vs
UTSA offense
86thof 138-0.025109 plays
Third down
South Florida offense
77thof 1380.06155 plays · small sample
vs
UTSA defense · allowed
97thof 1380.11283 plays
South Florida defense · allowed
27thof 138-0.19467 plays
vs
UTSA offense
79thof 1380.03467 plays
Red zone
South Florida offense
27thof 1380.22744 plays · small sample
vs
UTSA defense · allowed
95thof 1380.08063 plays
South Florida defense · allowed
4thof 138-0.49426 plays · small sample
vs
UTSA offense
104thof 138-0.12346 plays · small sample
Field advancement
South Florida offense
83rdof 13847.0%vs
UTSA defense · allowed
105thof 13847.8%South Florida defense · allowed
74thof 13842.9%vs
UTSA offense
93rdof 13844.9%Away
Home
South Florida Offense vs UTSA DefenseSouth Florida · 8 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.03#77
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#680.02
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
0.025#67
278 plays
EPA/Play
#900.018
allowed · 341 plays
0.038#55
120 plays
EPA/Pass
#36-0.128
allowed · 154 plays
0.014#82
158 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#1210.139
allowed · 187 plays
48.6%#52
278 plays
Success Rate
#8746.3%
allowed · 341 plays
49.2%#38
Pass Success Rate
#8143.9%
allowed
48.1%#71
Rush Success Rate
#7546.4%
allowed
47.0%#83
Available Yards %
#10547.8%
allowed
69.2#49
Net Field Position
#6072.2
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
0.007#71
221 plays
Early Downs EPA/Play
#76-0.024
allowed
7.6#113
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#1066.7
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
South Florida Defense vs UTSA OffenseSouth Florida · 7 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
0.07#52
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#650.03
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
-0.099#37
allowed · 291 plays
EPA/Play
#490.072
287 plays
-0.049#72
allowed · 125 plays
EPA/Pass
#92-0.057
137 plays
-0.137#30
allowed · 166 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#140.189
150 plays
45.4%#70
allowed · 291 plays
Success Rate
#5947.7%
287 plays
46.2%#104
allowed
Pass Success Rate
#11140.1%
42.6%#38
allowed
Rush Success Rate
#1454.7%
42.9%#74
allowed
Available Yards %
#9344.9%
72.9#48
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
Net Field Position
#3367.8
-0.045#64
allowed
Early Downs EPA/Play
#720.005
217 plays
7.1#82
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#1207.8
2026 · Situational EPASouth Florida · 5 of 6
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
0.025
280 plays
Non-garbage · Off
0.050
302 plays
-0.106
297 plays
Non-garbage · Def (allowed)
0.008
353 plays
0.227
44 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Off
-0.123
46 plays · small sample
-0.494
26 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Def (allowed)
0.080
63 plays
0.061
55 plays · small sample
3rd Down · Off
0.034
67 plays
-0.194
67 plays
3rd Down · Def (allowed)
0.112
83 plays