Sat, Oct 3, 4:15 PM ET· Memorial Stadium· Illinois -10 · O/U 61.5
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 73 mi / 0 miForecast: 67°F · wind 7 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Illinois -10 · O/U 61.5
total opened 59.5, now 61.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Purdue as road underdog
2026 overall: 1-3 ATS (4 games) · 4-0 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road underdog: 0-1 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 2-3 ATS (5 games) · 2-3 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 11-15 ATS (26 games) · 15-11 O/U (26 games)
Illinois as home favorite
2026 overall: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 4-0 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home favorite: 1-2 ATS (3 games) · 3-0 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 4-0-1 ATS (5 games) · 0-5 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 12-13-1 ATS (26 games) · 12-14 O/U (26 games)
2026 · TraditionalPurdue · 5 of 9
421.0
Yards / game
419.8
3.11
Points / drive
3.21
3.5
TDs / game
3.8
46.2
3rd-down %
42.9
60.0
RZ TD %
63.6
-0.5
Turnover margin
0.0
1.5
Sacks / game
0.8
5.3
TFL / game
4.0
10.5
Havoc / game
9.5
50.9 / 49.1
Pass / Rush split
50.2 / 49.8
2026 · Situational matchup
When Purdue has the ball
Purdue's early-down offense ranks 39th of 138. Illinois's early-down defense ranks 128th of 138.
Purdue's passing-down offense ranks 22nd of 138. Illinois's passing-down defense ranks 113th of 138.
Purdue's third-down offense ranks 43rd of 138. Illinois's third-down defense ranks 129th of 138.
Purdue's red-zone offense ranks 113th of 138. Illinois's red-zone defense ranks 128th of 138.
When Illinois has the ball
Illinois's early-down offense ranks 11th of 138. Purdue's early-down defense ranks 132nd of 138.
Illinois's passing-down offense ranks 13th of 138. Purdue's passing-down defense ranks 135th of 138.
Illinois's third-down offense ranks 107th of 138. Purdue's third-down defense ranks 128th of 138.
Illinois's red-zone offense ranks 118th of 138. Purdue's red-zone defense ranks 110th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
2026 · Collision map
Where each offense meets the other defense — FBS rank first, season value after.
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Early downs
Purdue offense
39thof 1380.092175 plays
vs
Illinois defense · allowed
128thof 1380.150Purdue defense · allowed
132ndof 1380.204vs
Illinois offense
11thof 1380.239166 plays
Passing downs
Purdue offense
22ndof 1380.25780 plays
vs
Illinois defense · allowed
113thof 1380.13788 plays
Purdue defense · allowed
135thof 1380.46975 plays
vs
Illinois offense
13thof 1380.31469 plays
Third down
Purdue offense
43rdof 1380.22651 plays · small sample
vs
Illinois defense · allowed
129thof 1380.31057 plays · small sample
Purdue defense · allowed
128thof 1380.30944 plays · small sample
vs
Illinois offense
107thof 138-0.12542 plays · small sample
Red zone
Purdue offense
113thof 138-0.19250 plays · small sample
vs
Illinois defense · allowed
128thof 1380.35737 plays · small sample
Purdue defense · allowed
110thof 1380.22046 plays · small sample
vs
Illinois offense
118thof 138-0.22718 plays · small sample
Field advancement
Purdue offense
35thof 13855.9%vs
Illinois defense · allowed
127thof 13855.1%Purdue defense · allowed
138thof 13861.4%vs
Illinois offense
13thof 13862.5%Purdue Offense vs Illinois DefensePurdue · 10 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
0.15#27
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#130-0.26
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
0.151#29
219 plays
EPA/Play
#1320.176
allowed · 242 plays
0.404#6
113 plays
EPA/Pass
#1170.163
allowed · 116 plays
-0.118#119
106 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#1280.187
allowed · 126 plays
52.1%#20
219 plays
Success Rate
#12850.4%
allowed · 242 plays
57.5%#12
Pass Success Rate
#10646.6%
allowed
46.2%#92
Rush Success Rate
#12852.8%
allowed
55.9%#35
Available Yards %
#12755.1%
allowed
71.5#93
Net Field Position
#7371.6
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
0.092#39
175 plays
Early Downs EPA/Play
#1280.150
allowed
6.4#37
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#667.3
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Purdue Defense vs Illinois OffenseIllinois · 10 of 11
EPA/Drive is opponent-adjusted. Other metrics are raw 2026 season stats with FBS ranks. Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
Quality (opponent-adjusted)
-0.39#138
Defense rating (opp-adj), higher = better
EPA/Drive (opp-adj)
#450.10
Style / situational breakdown (raw 2026)
0.267#137
allowed · 204 plays
EPA/Play
#360.119
211 plays
0.281#132
allowed · 86 plays
EPA/Pass
#480.099
110 plays
0.256#137
allowed · 118 plays
EPA/Rush (sacks included)
#320.141
101 plays
51.5%#135
allowed · 204 plays
Success Rate
#4149.8%
211 plays
52.0%#134
allowed
Pass Success Rate
#4649.1%
49.3%#105
allowed
Rush Success Rate
#5350.5%
61.4%#138
allowed
Available Yards %
#1362.5%
71.0#83
Opponents' net field position (higher = better)
Net Field Position
#9771.7
0.204#132
allowed
Early Downs EPA/Play
#110.239
166 plays
7.8#41
Opponents' avg 3rd-down distance (higher = better)
Avg 3rd Down Distance
#55.5
2026 · Situational EPAPurdue · 5 of 6
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best.
0.150
220 plays
Non-garbage · Off
0.119
211 plays
0.267
204 plays
Non-garbage · Def (allowed)
0.176
242 plays
-0.192
50 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Off
-0.227
18 plays · small sample
0.220
46 plays · small sample
Red Zone · Def (allowed)
0.357
37 plays · small sample
0.226
51 plays · small sample
3rd Down · Off
-0.125
42 plays · small sample
0.309
44 plays · small sample
3rd Down · Def (allowed)
0.310
57 plays · small sample