Fourth Down Data
Northwestern4-1 · Big Ten@Michigan State2-4 · Big Ten
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Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET· Spartan Stadium· Northwestern -8.5 · O/U 48.5
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 170 mi / 0 miForecast: 47°F · wind 15 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Northwestern -8.5 · O/U 48.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Northwestern as road favorite
2026 overall: 4-1 ATS (5 games) · 4-0-1 O/U (5 games)
2026 as road favorite: none in this role
Last season (2025): none in this role
Since 2020: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
Michigan State as home underdog
2026 overall: 3-3 ATS (6 games) · 2-4 O/U (6 games)
2026 as home underdog: 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 9-12 ATS (21 games) · 12-8 O/U (20 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalNorthwestern · 8 of 9
437.4
Yards / game
311.7
3.26
Points / drive
2.25
4.2
TDs / game
2.3
41.8
3rd-down %
42.5
73.9
RZ TD %
60.0
1.2
Turnover margin
-0.7
1.6
Sacks / game
1.2
4.6
TFL / game
3.7
13.6
Havoc / game
9.0
36.9 / 63.1
Pass / Rush split
42.6 / 57.4
2026 · Situational matchup
When Northwestern has the ball
Northwestern's early-down offense ranks 17th of 138. Michigan State's early-down defense ranks 110th of 138.
Northwestern's passing-down offense ranks 27th of 138. Michigan State's passing-down defense ranks 95th of 138.
Northwestern's third-down offense ranks 56th of 138. Michigan State's third-down defense ranks 93rd of 138.
Northwestern's red-zone offense ranks 6th of 138. Michigan State's red-zone defense ranks 107th of 138.
When Michigan State has the ball
Michigan State's early-down offense ranks 101st of 138. Northwestern's early-down defense ranks 105th of 138.
Michigan State's passing-down offense ranks 103rd of 138. Northwestern's passing-down defense ranks 25th of 138.
Michigan State's third-down offense ranks 82nd of 138. Northwestern's third-down defense ranks 32nd of 138.
Michigan State's red-zone offense ranks 91st of 138. Northwestern's red-zone defense ranks 31st of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(0.224 last 3 vs 0.203 season)
▼Defense form0.007 last 3 vs -0.056 season (+0.063)
Offense formabout the same(-0.106 last 3 vs -0.069 season)
Defense formabout the same(0.073 last 3 vs 0.061 season)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingAidan Chiles — 1172 yd, 9 TD
RushingCaleb Komolafe — 334 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingGriffin Wilde — 425 yd, 3 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingAlessio Milivojevic — 1047 yd, 5 TD
RushingCam Edwards — 304 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingRodney Bullard Jr. — 242 yd, 1 TD