Fourth Down Data
Ball State1-4 · Mid-American@Northwestern3-1 · Big Ten
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Sat, Oct 10, 12:30 PM ET· Ryan Field· Northwestern -34.5 · O/U 51.5
Rest 7d / 8dTravel 174 mi / 0 miForecast: 66°F · wind 9 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Northwestern -34.5 · O/U 51.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Ball State as road underdog
2026 overall: 2-3 ATS (5 games) · 4-1 O/U (5 games)
2026 as road underdog: 0-3 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 3-4 ATS (7 games) · 3-4 O/U (7 games)
Since 2020: 17-17-1 ATS (35 games) · 18-17 O/U (35 games)
Northwestern as home favorite
2026 overall: 4-0 ATS (4 games) · 3-0-1 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home favorite: 2-0 ATS (2 games) · 1-0-1 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 4-2 ATS (6 games) · 3-3 O/U (6 games)
Since 2020: 13-9 ATS (22 games) · 10-10-1 O/U (21 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalNorthwestern · 8 of 9
295.2
Yards / game
437.8
1.81
Points / drive
2.98
2.4
TDs / game
4.0
28.8
3rd-down %
41.3
58.3
RZ TD %
68.4
-0.2
Turnover margin
1.3
1.4
Sacks / game
1.5
4.8
TFL / game
3.5
9.6
Havoc / game
13.5
50.7 / 49.3
Pass / Rush split
35.4 / 64.6
2026 · Situational matchup
When Ball State has the ball
Ball State's early-down offense ranks 87th of 138. Northwestern's early-down defense ranks 107th of 138.
Ball State's passing-down offense ranks 79th of 138. Northwestern's passing-down defense ranks 31st of 138.
Ball State's third-down offense ranks 128th of 138. Northwestern's third-down defense ranks 33rd of 138.
Ball State's red-zone offense ranks 76th of 138. Northwestern's red-zone defense ranks 26th of 138.
When Northwestern has the ball
Northwestern's early-down offense ranks 23rd of 138. Ball State's early-down defense ranks 105th of 138.
Northwestern's passing-down offense ranks 20th of 138. Ball State's passing-down defense ranks 109th of 138.
Northwestern's third-down offense ranks 53rd of 138. Ball State's third-down defense ranks 134th of 138.
Northwestern's red-zone offense ranks 24th of 138. Ball State's red-zone defense ranks 133rd of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(-0.018 last 3 vs -0.033 season)
▼Defense form0.164 last 3 vs 0.106 season (+0.058)
Offense formabout the same(0.157 last 3 vs 0.175 season)
Defense formabout the same(-0.096 last 3 vs -0.067 season)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingKeldric Luster — 662 yd, 5 TD
RushingTJ Horton — 301 yd, 4 TD
ReceivingDonovan Hamilton — 220 yd, 1 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingAidan Chiles — 900 yd, 6 TD
RushingCaleb Komolafe — 290 yd, 2 TD
ReceivingGriffin Wilde — 281 yd, 2 TD