Fourth Down Data
Ball State3-5 · Mid-American@Massachusetts4-4 · Mid-American
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Wed, Nov 4, 7:00 PM ET· Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium· Massachusetts -3.5 · O/U 48.5
Rest 11d / 12dTravel 684 mi / 0 miForecast: 57°F · wind 6 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Massachusetts -3.5 · O/U 48.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Ball State as road underdog
2026 overall: 5-3 ATS (8 games) · 6-1-1 O/U (8 games)
2026 as road underdog: 2-3 ATS (5 games) · 4-1 O/U (5 games)
Last season (2025): 3-4 ATS (7 games) · 3-4 O/U (7 games)
Since 2020: 19-17-1 ATS (37 games) · 20-17 O/U (37 games)
Massachusetts as home favorite
2026 overall: 4-3-1 ATS (8 games) · 4-4 O/U (8 games)
2026 as home favorite: 1-2 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 0-1 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Since 2020: 2-7 ATS (9 games) · 4-5 O/U (9 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalBall State · 5 of 9
337.5
Yards / game
334.6
2.12
Points / drive
2.10
2.9
TDs / game
2.9
34.0
3rd-down %
32.3
68.2
RZ TD %
60.9
-0.4
Turnover margin
0.9
1.9
Sacks / game
2.5
5.3
TFL / game
4.1
11.0
Havoc / game
12.1
48.6 / 51.4
Pass / Rush split
44.2 / 55.8
2026 · Situational matchup
When Ball State has the ball
Ball State's early-down offense ranks 83rd of 138. Massachusetts's early-down defense ranks 21st of 138.
Ball State's passing-down offense ranks 54th of 138. Massachusetts's passing-down defense ranks 55th of 138.
Ball State's third-down offense ranks 111th of 138. Massachusetts's third-down defense ranks 19th of 138.
Ball State's red-zone offense ranks 31st of 138. Massachusetts's red-zone defense ranks 72nd of 138.
When Massachusetts has the ball
Massachusetts's early-down offense ranks 87th of 138. Ball State's early-down defense ranks 110th of 138.
Massachusetts's passing-down offense ranks 95th of 138. Ball State's passing-down defense ranks 89th of 138.
Massachusetts's third-down offense ranks 122nd of 138. Ball State's third-down defense ranks 117th of 138.
Massachusetts's red-zone offense ranks 67th of 138. Ball State's red-zone defense ranks 134th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▲Offense form0.070 last 3 vs 0.005 season (+0.065)
Defense formabout the same(0.080 last 3 vs 0.096 season)
▼Offense form-0.202 last 3 vs -0.036 season (-0.166)
▼Defense form-0.094 last 3 vs -0.163 season (+0.069)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingKeldric Luster — 1300 yd, 9 TD
RushingTJ Horton — 425 yd, 9 TD
ReceivingDonovan Hamilton — 310 yd, 1 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingWilliam Pop Watson III — 1025 yd, 8 TD
RushingElijah Faulkner — 376 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingT.Y. Harding — 327 yd, 2 TD