Fourth Down Data
Middle Tennessee5-4 · Conference USA@Liberty8-1 · Conference USA
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Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET· Williams Stadium· Liberty -21.5 · O/U 53.5
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 412 mi / 0 miForecast: 46°F · wind 15 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Liberty -21.5 · O/U 53.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Middle Tennessee as road underdog
2026 overall: 6-3 ATS (9 games) · 5-4 O/U (9 games)
2026 as road underdog: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
Last season (2025): 3-3 ATS (6 games) · 4-2 O/U (6 games)
Since 2020: 20-19-1 ATS (40 games) · 19-21 O/U (40 games)
Liberty as home favorite
2026 overall: 7-2 ATS (9 games) · 3-6 O/U (9 games)
2026 as home favorite: 3-1 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
Last season (2025): 1-3 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
Since 2020: 18-18 ATS (36 games) · 19-17 O/U (36 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalLiberty · 9 of 9
363.3
Yards / game
409.7
2.23
Points / drive
2.82
2.8
TDs / game
4.1
34.2
3rd-down %
45.2
68.2
RZ TD %
69.0
0.7
Turnover margin
0.9
1.2
Sacks / game
2.2
2.9
TFL / game
6.0
7.9
Havoc / game
13.3
53.1 / 46.9
Pass / Rush split
35.0 / 65.0
2026 · Situational matchup
When Middle Tennessee has the ball
Middle Tennessee's early-down offense ranks 47th of 138. Liberty's early-down defense ranks 7th of 138.
Middle Tennessee's passing-down offense ranks 70th of 138. Liberty's passing-down defense ranks 62nd of 138.
Middle Tennessee's third-down offense ranks 136th of 138. Liberty's third-down defense ranks 60th of 138.
Middle Tennessee's red-zone offense ranks 32nd of 138. Liberty's red-zone defense ranks 12th of 138.
When Liberty has the ball
Liberty's early-down offense ranks 16th of 138. Middle Tennessee's early-down defense ranks 116th of 138.
Liberty's passing-down offense ranks 72nd of 138. Middle Tennessee's passing-down defense ranks 94th of 138.
Liberty's third-down offense ranks 54th of 138. Middle Tennessee's third-down defense ranks 63rd of 138.
Liberty's red-zone offense ranks 52nd of 138. Middle Tennessee's red-zone defense ranks 98th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(-0.023 last 3 vs -0.037 season)
Defense formabout the same(0.096 last 3 vs 0.056 season)
▲Offense form0.162 last 3 vs 0.106 season (+0.055)
▲Defense form-0.283 last 3 vs -0.225 season (-0.057)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingRoman Gagliano — 1899 yd, 16 TD
RushingAntonio Martin Jr. — 711 yd, 4 TD
ReceivingCam'ron Lacy — 579 yd, 4 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingDeshawn Purdie — 1705 yd, 11 TD
RushingKam Davis — 666 yd, 8 TD
ReceivingMakai Jackson — 702 yd, 6 TD