Fourth Down Data
Michigan3-1 · Big Ten@Minnesota3-1 · Big Ten
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Sat, Oct 3, 12:00 PM ET· TCF Bank Stadium· Michigan -5.5 · O/U 43.5
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 509 mi / 0 miForecast: 60°F · wind 14 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Michigan -5.5 · O/U 43.5
total opened 43, now 43.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Michigan as road favorite
2026 overall: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 1-3 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road favorite: none in this role
Last season (2025): 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 4-0 O/U (4 games)
Since 2020: 12-9 ATS (21 games) · 16-5 O/U (21 games)
Minnesota as home underdog
2026 overall: 3-1 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home underdog: 0-1 ATS (1 game) · 0-1 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 2-0 ATS (2 games) · 0-2 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 7-6-2 ATS (15 games) · 7-7-1 O/U (15 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalMinnesota · 7 of 9
349.8
Yards / game
377.8
2.23
Points / drive
2.51
3.0
TDs / game
3.5
42.9
3rd-down %
41.1
58.3
RZ TD %
66.7
-0.8
Turnover margin
0.5
3.0
Sacks / game
2.8
7.0
TFL / game
8.3
12.8
Havoc / game
16.0
39.3 / 60.7
Pass / Rush split
54.2 / 45.8
2026 · Situational matchup
When Michigan has the ball
Michigan's early-down offense ranks 62nd of 138. Minnesota's early-down defense ranks 53rd of 138.
Michigan's passing-down offense ranks 73rd of 138. Minnesota's passing-down defense ranks 66th of 138.
Michigan's third-down offense ranks 106th of 138. Minnesota's third-down defense ranks 22nd of 138.
Michigan's red-zone offense ranks 40th of 138. Minnesota's red-zone defense ranks 124th of 138.
When Minnesota has the ball
Minnesota's early-down offense ranks 120th of 138. Michigan's early-down defense ranks 15th of 138.
Minnesota's passing-down offense ranks 131st of 138. Michigan's passing-down defense ranks 8th of 138.
Minnesota's third-down offense ranks 87th of 138. Michigan's third-down defense ranks 72nd of 138.
Minnesota's red-zone offense ranks 80th of 138. Michigan's red-zone defense ranks 31st of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▲Offense form0.048 last 3 vs -0.020 season (+0.068)
Defense formabout the same(-0.191 last 3 vs -0.189 season)
▼Offense form-0.172 last 3 vs -0.047 season (-0.125)
Defense formabout the same(-0.103 last 3 vs -0.077 season)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingBryce Underwood — 780 yd, 5 TD
RushingJordan Marshall — 194 yd, 2 TD
ReceivingJJ Buchanan — 396 yd, 4 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingDrake Lindsey — 951 yd, 7 TD
RushingTJ Thomas — 251 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingJavon Tracy — 281 yd, 1 TD