Fourth Down Data
Michigan State2-2 · Big Ten@Wisconsin3-1 · Big Ten
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Sat, Oct 3, 12:30 PM ET· Camp Randall Stadium· Wisconsin -10 · O/U 43.5
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 251 mi / 0 miForecast: 61°F · wind 9 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Wisconsin -10 · O/U 43.5
total opened 44, now 43.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Michigan State as road underdog
2026 overall: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 1-3 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road underdog: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 0-1 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 5-0 ATS (5 games) · 3-2 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 17-9-1 ATS (27 games) · 12-15 O/U (27 games)
Wisconsin as home favorite
2026 overall: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 2-1-1 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home favorite: 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 1-2 ATS (3 games) · 1-2 O/U (3 games)
Since 2020: 14-20 ATS (34 games) · 14-19 O/U (33 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalWisconsin · 5 of 9
323.3
Yards / game
381.0
2.29
Points / drive
2.58
2.3
TDs / game
3.0
44.2
3rd-down %
42.3
57.1
RZ TD %
50.0
-1.0
Turnover margin
-0.5
1.8
Sacks / game
1.3
4.8
TFL / game
4.0
10.5
Havoc / game
11.5
40.9 / 59.1
Pass / Rush split
50.6 / 49.4
2026 · Situational matchup
When Michigan State has the ball
Michigan State's early-down offense ranks 122nd of 138. Wisconsin's early-down defense ranks 42nd of 138.
Michigan State's passing-down offense ranks 108th of 138. Wisconsin's passing-down defense ranks 25th of 138.
Michigan State's third-down offense ranks 63rd of 138. Wisconsin's third-down defense ranks 44th of 138.
Michigan State's red-zone offense ranks 105th of 138. Wisconsin's red-zone defense ranks 39th of 138.
When Wisconsin has the ball
Wisconsin's early-down offense ranks 98th of 138. Michigan State's early-down defense ranks 114th of 138.
Wisconsin's passing-down offense ranks 106th of 138. Michigan State's passing-down defense ranks 95th of 138.
Wisconsin's third-down offense ranks 101st of 138. Michigan State's third-down defense ranks 62nd of 138.
Wisconsin's red-zone offense ranks 77th of 138. Michigan State's red-zone defense ranks 97th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(-0.069 last 3 vs -0.068 season)
Defense formabout the same(0.019 last 3 vs 0.052 season)
▲Offense form0.060 last 3 vs -0.012 season (+0.073)
▲Defense form-0.253 last 3 vs -0.130 season (-0.123)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingAlessio Milivojevic — 748 yd, 3 TD
RushingCam Edwards — 304 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingRodney Bullard Jr. — 193 yd, 1 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingColton Joseph — 987 yd, 7 TD
RushingAbu Sama III — 190 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingTyrell Henry — 307 yd, 1 TD