Fourth Down Data
#4Miami4-0 · ACC@Clemson3-1 · ACC
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Sat, Oct 3, 7:30 PM ET· Memorial Stadium· Miami -16.5 · O/U 47.5
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 7d / 8dTravel 622 mi / 0 miForecast: 75°F · wind 6 mph · Rain, Partially cloudy
Market context
Miami -16.5 · O/U 47.5
total opened 48.5, now 47.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Miami as road favorite
2026 overall: 3-1 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road favorite: 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 3-2 ATS (5 games) · 2-3 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 11-10-1 ATS (22 games) · 10-11-1 O/U (22 games)
Clemson as home underdog
2026 overall: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home underdog: none in this role
Last season (2025): none in this role
Since 2020: 1-1 ATS (2 games) · 1-0-1 O/U (2 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalMiami · 8 of 9
588.8
Yards / game
314.0
4.53
Points / drive
1.53
7.0
TDs / game
1.8
55.6
3rd-down %
27.3
81.0
RZ TD %
36.4
0.5
Turnover margin
-0.3
2.5
Sacks / game
2.0
4.8
TFL / game
4.3
11.8
Havoc / game
13.0
47.8 / 52.2
Pass / Rush split
42.2 / 57.8
2026 · Situational matchup
When Miami has the ball
Miami's early-down offense ranks 1st of 138. Clemson's early-down defense ranks 59th of 138.
Miami's passing-down offense ranks 48th of 138. Clemson's passing-down defense ranks 75th of 138.
Miami's third-down offense ranks 38th of 138. Clemson's third-down defense ranks 30th of 138.
Miami's red-zone offense ranks 34th of 138. Clemson's red-zone defense ranks 67th of 138.
When Clemson has the ball
Clemson's early-down offense ranks 129th of 138. Miami's early-down defense ranks 65th of 138.
Clemson's passing-down offense ranks 117th of 138. Miami's passing-down defense ranks 9th of 138.
Clemson's third-down offense ranks 119th of 138. Miami's third-down defense ranks 7th of 138.
Clemson's red-zone offense ranks 117th of 138. Miami's red-zone defense ranks 13th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(0.398 last 3 vs 0.432 season)
Defense formabout the same(-0.320 last 3 vs -0.289 season)
▲Offense form-0.078 last 3 vs -0.253 season (+0.175)
▲Defense form-0.216 last 3 vs -0.153 season (-0.063)
Away
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingDarian Mensah — 1211 yd, 14 TD
RushingMark Fletcher, Jr. — 230 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingMalachi Toney — 564 yd, 6 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingTait Reynolds — 521 yd, 1 TD
RushingGideon Davidson — 346 yd, 3 TD
ReceivingT.J. Moore — 196 yd, 1 TD