Fourth Down Data
Massachusetts5-4 · Mid-American@Toledo7-2 · Mid-American
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Wed, Nov 11, 7:30 PM ET· Glass Bowl· Toledo -14.5 · O/U 52.5
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 570 mi / 0 miForecast: 48°F · wind 6 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Toledo -14.5 · O/U 52.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Massachusetts as road underdog
2026 overall: 4-4-1 ATS (9 games) · 5-4 O/U (9 games)
2026 as road underdog: 1-1-1 ATS (3 games) · 3-0 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 2-4 ATS (6 games) · 4-2 O/U (6 games)
Since 2020: 17-20-1 ATS (38 games) · 22-16 O/U (38 games)
Toledo as home favorite
2026 overall: 4-4 ATS (8 games) · 5-3 O/U (8 games)
2026 as home favorite: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
Last season (2025): 5-1 ATS (6 games) · 5-1 O/U (6 games)
Since 2020: 19-19 ATS (38 games) · 22-15 O/U (37 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalToledo · 8 of 9
348.0
Yards / game
454.9
2.14
Points / drive
2.68
3.0
TDs / game
4.3
33.0
3rd-down %
42.5
60.7
RZ TD %
75.7
0.6
Turnover margin
0.1
2.6
Sacks / game
3.1
4.6
TFL / game
6.6
12.2
Havoc / game
15.4
43.6 / 56.4
Pass / Rush split
44.6 / 55.4
2026 · Situational matchup
When Massachusetts has the ball
Massachusetts's early-down offense ranks 62nd of 138. Toledo's early-down defense ranks 18th of 138.
Massachusetts's passing-down offense ranks 67th of 138. Toledo's passing-down defense ranks 60th of 138.
Massachusetts's third-down offense ranks 134th of 138. Toledo's third-down defense ranks 37th of 138.
Massachusetts's red-zone offense ranks 69th of 138. Toledo's red-zone defense ranks 72nd of 138.
When Toledo has the ball
Toledo's early-down offense ranks 18th of 138. Massachusetts's early-down defense ranks 28th of 138.
Toledo's passing-down offense ranks 56th of 138. Massachusetts's passing-down defense ranks 41st of 138.
Toledo's third-down offense ranks 44th of 138. Massachusetts's third-down defense ranks 25th of 138.
Toledo's red-zone offense ranks 9th of 138. Massachusetts's red-zone defense ranks 83rd of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▼Offense form-0.113 last 3 vs -0.022 season (-0.090)
▼Defense form-0.033 last 3 vs -0.141 season (+0.108)
Offense formabout the same(0.040 last 3 vs 0.070 season)
Defense formabout the same(-0.152 last 3 vs -0.155 season)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingWilliam "Pop" Watson III — 1327 yd, 9 TD
RushingElijah Faulkner — 400 yd, 2 TD
ReceivingT.Y. Harding — 397 yd, 2 TD
Home
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingJohn Alan Richter — 2304 yd, 18 TD
RushingCJ Miller — 744 yd, 7 TD
ReceivingAdjatay Dabbs — 592 yd, 7 TD