Fourth Down Data
Louisville2-2 · ACC@NC State2-2 · ACC
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Sat, Oct 3, 3:30 PM ET· Carter-Finley Stadium· Louisville -3.5 · O/U 58.5
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 422 mi / 0 miForecast: 76°F · wind 11 mph · Rain, Partially cloudy
Market context
Louisville -3.5 · O/U 58.5
opened Louisville -6, now Louisville -3.5 · total opened 60, now 58.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Louisville as road favorite
2026 overall: 3-1 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road favorite: none in this role
Last season (2025): 2-0 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 7-12 ATS (19 games) · 13-6 O/U (19 games)
NC State as home underdog
2026 overall: 1-3 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home underdog: none in this role
Last season (2025): 2-0 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 9-3 ATS (12 games) · 6-6 O/U (12 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalLouisville · 7 of 9
486.3
Yards / game
451.8
3.06
Points / drive
2.92
5.3
TDs / game
5.0
45.8
3rd-down %
53.6
73.3
RZ TD %
78.9
1.5
Turnover margin
-0.5
1.5
Sacks / game
1.0
3.8
TFL / game
3.3
11.0
Havoc / game
9.8
43.3 / 56.7
Pass / Rush split
43.9 / 56.1
2026 · Situational matchup
When Louisville has the ball
Louisville's early-down offense ranks 16th of 138. NC State's early-down defense ranks 102nd of 138.
Louisville's passing-down offense ranks 35th of 138. NC State's passing-down defense ranks 56th of 138.
Louisville's third-down offense ranks 57th of 138. NC State's third-down defense ranks 15th of 138.
Louisville's red-zone offense ranks 56th of 138. NC State's red-zone defense ranks 138th of 138.
When NC State has the ball
NC State's early-down offense ranks 93rd of 138. Louisville's early-down defense ranks 133rd of 138.
NC State's passing-down offense ranks 54th of 138. Louisville's passing-down defense ranks 117th of 138.
NC State's third-down offense ranks 12th of 138. Louisville's third-down defense ranks 45th of 138.
NC State's red-zone offense ranks 47th of 138. Louisville's red-zone defense ranks 81st of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(0.225 last 3 vs 0.184 season)
Defense formabout the same(0.107 last 3 vs 0.098 season)
▲Offense form0.258 last 3 vs 0.114 season (+0.144)
▲Defense form-0.172 last 3 vs -0.107 season (-0.065)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingLincoln Kienholz — 1140 yd, 7 TD
RushingKeyjuan Brown — 279 yd, 2 TD
ReceivingTre Richardson — 328 yd, 1 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingCJ Bailey — 893 yd, 6 TD
RushingJayden Duke Scott — 346 yd, 4 TD
ReceivingKeenan Jackson — 295 yd, 4 TD