Fourth Down Data
Louisville6-3 · ACC@North Carolina5-4 · ACC
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Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM ET· Kenan Stadium· Louisville -3 · O/U 60.5
Rest 7d / 7dTravel 403 mi / 0 miForecast: 42°F · wind 10 mph · Clear
Market context
Louisville -3 · O/U 60.5
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Louisville as road favorite
2026 overall: 6-3 ATS (9 games) · 7-2 O/U (9 games)
2026 as road favorite: 1-2 ATS (3 games) · 2-1 O/U (3 games)
Last season (2025): 2-0 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 8-14 ATS (22 games) · 15-7 O/U (22 games)
North Carolina as home underdog
2026 overall: 6-3 ATS (9 games) · 5-4 O/U (9 games)
2026 as home underdog: 2-0 ATS (2 games) · 2-0 O/U (2 games)
Last season (2025): 1-2-1 ATS (4 games) · 3-1 O/U (4 games)
Since 2020: 4-8-1 ATS (13 games) · 8-5 O/U (13 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalLouisville · 7 of 9
488.1
Yards / game
353.0
3.31
Points / drive
2.48
5.2
TDs / game
3.2
44.4
3rd-down %
45.9
69.4
RZ TD %
69.7
0.8
Turnover margin
-0.1
2.6
Sacks / game
2.0
5.3
TFL / game
3.8
13.9
Havoc / game
10.8
42.8 / 57.2
Pass / Rush split
50.5 / 49.5
2026 · Situational matchup
When Louisville has the ball
Louisville's early-down offense ranks 2nd of 138. North Carolina's early-down defense ranks 99th of 138.
Louisville's passing-down offense ranks 2nd of 138. North Carolina's passing-down defense ranks 30th of 138.
Louisville's third-down offense ranks 7th of 138. North Carolina's third-down defense ranks 103rd of 138.
Louisville's red-zone offense ranks 60th of 138. North Carolina's red-zone defense ranks 56th of 138.
When North Carolina has the ball
North Carolina's early-down offense ranks 75th of 138. Louisville's early-down defense ranks 127th of 138.
North Carolina's passing-down offense ranks 60th of 138. Louisville's passing-down defense ranks 90th of 138.
North Carolina's third-down offense ranks 57th of 138. Louisville's third-down defense ranks 14th of 138.
North Carolina's red-zone offense ranks 27th of 138. Louisville's red-zone defense ranks 26th of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
▲Offense form0.344 last 3 vs 0.267 season (+0.077)
▲Defense form-0.125 last 3 vs 0.019 season (-0.143)
▲Offense form0.143 last 3 vs 0.055 season (+0.089)
▼Defense form0.135 last 3 vs 0.010 season (+0.126)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingLincoln Kienholz — 2276 yd, 14 TD
RushingIsaac Brown — 745 yd, 8 TD
ReceivingTre Richardson — 685 yd, 3 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingBilly Edwards Jr. — 2127 yd, 18 TD
RushingBenjamin Hall — 377 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingJordan Shipp — 642 yd, 4 TD