Fourth Down Data
Liberty3-1 · Conference USA@Delaware2-2 · Conference USA
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Fri, Oct 2, 7:00 PM ET· Delaware Stadium· Liberty -7.5 · O/U 50
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Rest 8d / 6dTravel 244 mi / 0 miForecast: 75°F · wind 8 mph · Partially cloudy
Market context
Liberty -7.5 · O/U 50
opened Liberty -7, now Liberty -7.5 · total opened 49.5, now 50
Records vs the spread and total, in each team’s role for this game.
Liberty as road favorite
2026 overall: 2-2 ATS (4 games) · 2-2 O/U (4 games)
2026 as road favorite: 1-0 ATS (1 game) · 1-0 O/U (1 game)
Last season (2025): 1-4 ATS (5 games) · 3-2 O/U (5 games)
Since 2020: 10-15 ATS (25 games) · 16-8-1 O/U (25 games)
Delaware as home underdog
2026 overall: 3-1 ATS (4 games) · 1-3 O/U (4 games)
2026 as home underdog: none in this role
Last season (2025): 2-0 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Since 2020: 2-0 ATS (2 games) · 1-1 O/U (2 games)
Away
Home
2026 · TraditionalLiberty · 5 of 9
411.3
Yards / game
360.0
2.48
Points / drive
2.00
3.8
TDs / game
2.8
46.0
3rd-down %
33.3
56.3
RZ TD %
58.3
0.3
Turnover margin
0.3
2.3
Sacks / game
3.5
6.3
TFL / game
5.8
13.8
Havoc / game
16.5
34.9 / 65.1
Pass / Rush split
51.7 / 48.3
2026 · Situational matchup
When Liberty has the ball
Liberty's early-down offense ranks 50th of 138. Delaware's early-down defense ranks 61st of 138.
Liberty's passing-down offense ranks 43rd of 138. Delaware's passing-down defense ranks 92nd of 138.
Liberty's third-down offense ranks 53rd of 138. Delaware's third-down defense ranks 104th of 138.
Liberty's red-zone offense ranks 115th of 138. Delaware's red-zone defense ranks 75th of 138.
When Delaware has the ball
Delaware's early-down offense ranks 92nd of 138. Liberty's early-down defense ranks 9th of 138.
Delaware's passing-down offense ranks 116th of 138. Liberty's passing-down defense ranks 38th of 138.
Delaware's third-down offense ranks 100th of 138. Liberty's third-down defense ranks 95th of 138.
Delaware's red-zone offense ranks 107th of 138. Liberty's red-zone defense ranks 61st of 138.
What’s changed
Values are what the defense allowed. Ranks: 1st = best. Offense form is EPA per play gained.
Offense formabout the same(0.073 last 3 vs 0.052 season)
Defense formabout the same(-0.102 last 3 vs -0.088 season)
▼Offense form-0.119 last 3 vs -0.039 season (-0.081)
▼Defense form0.100 last 3 vs -0.032 season (+0.132)
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingDeshawn Purdie — 779 yd, 7 TD
RushingKam Davis — 310 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingMakai Jackson — 379 yd, 5 TD
2026 · Stat leaders
PassingNick Minicucci — 838 yd, 5 TD
RushingJo Silver — 205 yd, 1 TD
ReceivingSean Wilson — 292 yd, 3 TD